Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:22:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

6A 0x6a42…8009 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL −$48 (-31%) realized −$49 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip

Net edge+15%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$52per market

Trades / day1.2pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+14.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+27.0%	+14.9%	50%	50%	-46.5%
≤30d	2	+27.0%	+14.9%	50%	50%	-46.5%
≤90d	2	+27.0%	+14.9%	50%	50%	-46.5%
all	2	+27.0%	+14.9%	50%	50%	-46.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+14.9%	50%	-46.5%
10%	+3.9%	50%	-51.7%
15%	-6.2%	50%	-56.3%
20%	-15.4%	50%	-60.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -41% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +27% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$42 vs −$90 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.47 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$36

Realized−$49

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage3d

Avg bet$52

Trades / day1.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	3¢	3¢	$35	$36	+$1 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$27	+$42	+154%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$92	−$90	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	3¢	$36	1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	48¢	$20	7h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	25¢	$7	10h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	18¢	$92	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.55 · official $35.55 (match) · 5 history records