Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:08:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a3f…9459 crypto 200 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$620 (-13%) realized −$620 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%83W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$94
14 days+$320
30 days+$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$634
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +7.3% -2.9% 50% 50% -24.0%
≤30d 54 +9.7% -0.7% 54% 54% -2.5%
≤90d 160 -22.0% -29.4% 38% 38% -27.5%
all 200 -11.3% -19.7% 42% 42% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 42% -21.5%
10% -27.4% 40% -29.0%
15% -34.4% 39% -35.8%
20% -40.8% 36% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$22 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$620
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses83 / 117
Open positions0
Markets (closed)200 / 200
History coverage115d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 200 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$44 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $41 +$14 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET Jun 18 $48 −$44 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$18 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $18 +$15 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 16 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$9 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$53 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $110 −$105 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $61 +$49 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $34 +$26 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$15 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$12 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$10 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$4 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$14 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $13 +$7 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$10 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $28 −$25 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5PM ET Jun 10 $65 −$62 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $66 +$60 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $66 +$46 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET Jun 10 $71 −$67 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11PM ET Jun 10 $78 +$61 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9AM ET Jun 09 $99 +$99 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $41 +$33 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $135 +$198 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11AM ET Jun 07 $31 +$72 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10AM ET Jun 07 $32 +$26 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 06 $16 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6AM ET Jun 04 $32 −$32 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4AM ET Jun 02 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 27 $32 −$31 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $31 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $13 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $32 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $7 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $31 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $83 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $84 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $31 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 664 history records