Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:17:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a3f…16bf other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$226 (+9%) realized +$226 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate30%9W / 21L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$151
sports 33% −$139
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-37.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -30.5% -37.1% 30% 23% -9.1%
≤30d 30 -30.5% -37.1% 30% 23% -9.1%
≤90d 30 -30.5% -37.1% 30% 23% -9.1%
all 30 -30.5% -37.1% 30% 23% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.1% 23% -9.1%
10% -43.1% 20% -17.8%
15% -48.6% 7% -25.7%
20% -53.7% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$27 · ×2.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$226
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses9 / 21
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage6d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $202 −$1 -0%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $317 −$89 -28%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 20 $51 −$44 -86%
Haiti leading at halftime? Jun 20 $5 −$4 -78%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 19 $26 +$30 +115%
Australia to win the second half? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -94%
United States to win the second half? Jun 19 $54 −$18 -34%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $51 −$4 -7%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $103 −$45 -43%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$4 -7%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 −$32 -64%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $52 −$47 -91%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $71 +$16 +23%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $31 +$5 +17%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $62 +$17 +27%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$7 -14%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $103 +$24 +24%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $507 +$463 +91%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $145 +$11 +7%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $52 −$43 -83%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 $0 +1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $52 −$35 -68%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $52 −$27 -52%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $62 −$33 -54%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $51 −$26 -51%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $51 +$15 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 94¢ $202 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes $12 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 92¢ $202 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $216 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $309 2h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 2h
Türkiye leading at halftime? SELL Yes $7 2h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 3h
Haiti leading at halftime? SELL Yes $1 5h
Haiti leading at halftime? BUY Yes $5 5h
Morocco leading at halftime? SELL Yes 94¢ $55 7h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $26 9h
Australia to win the second half? SELL Yes $1 9h
Australia to win the second half? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 9h
United States to win the second half? SELL Yes 38¢ $35 9h
United States to win the second half? BUY Yes 55¢ $54 10h
United States leading at halftime? SELL Yes 85¢ $47 10h
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 89¢ $51 10h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes $13 11h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $52 15h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $48 17h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 20h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 17¢ $46 20h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $52 23h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 25¢ $19 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $5 27h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $51 28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $52 28h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 80¢ $88 30h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 36¢ $36 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records