Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a3c…a9a8 other 421 markets active 2h ago coverage 388d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,260 (+8%) realized +$1,264 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate34%142W / 278L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$99est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$489now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$619
7 days+$974
14 days+$1,286
30 days+$1,669
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$1,091
sports 36% −$171
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +20.3% +8.9% 47% 47% +5.4%
≤30d 43 +0.2% -9.3% 49% 47% +5.7%
≤90d 113 -1.4% -10.8% 43% 41% +3.4%
all 420 -8.7% -17.4% 34% 31% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 31% -4.0%
10% -25.3% 28% -13.2%
15% -32.5% 25% -21.6%
20% -39.1% 22% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$17 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

388d coverage
Net worth$489
Realized+$1,264
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses142 / 278
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions1
Markets (closed)420 / 421
History coverage388d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 420 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $494 $489 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 107 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $499 +$89 +18%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $300 +$531 +177%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $320 −$316 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $472 +$349 +74%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $135 +$336 +249%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $501 −$366 -73%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $411 −$155 -38%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $490 −$79 -16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $936 −$895 -96%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $60 −$26 -44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $577 +$446 +77%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -80%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $394 +$582 +148%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $333 +$370 +111%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $526 +$112 +21%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 −$1 -14%
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $202 −$160 -79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $163 +$46 +28%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $400 −$393 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $282 +$154 +55%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $202 −$18 -9%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $435 +$162 +37%
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $37 −$36 -97%
Will Guatemala vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 04 $13 −$13 -97%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $41 −$29 -71%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $630 +$438 +70%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $99 −$8 -8%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $792 +$168 +21%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $271 +$186 +69%
Will Morocco vs. Madagascar end in a draw? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -85%
Will Madagascar win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -92%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $222 +$157 +71%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $59 +$2 +3%
Will Panama win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $14 −$14 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $38 +$34 +90%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $60 +$19 +32%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $35 +$14 +42%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $10 +$12 +119%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $18 +$13 +71%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $10 −$1 -7%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 13 $7 +$4 +59%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $272 −$102 -37%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $96 +$16 +16%
Will New York City FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $127 +$90 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $4 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $496 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 79¢ $588 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $91 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $404 25h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 57¢ $831 30h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $49 31h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 32h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $49 32h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $200 35h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 39h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $319 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $821 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $471 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $471 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $135 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 3¢ $136 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $200 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $255 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 24¢ $255 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $3 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $408 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 15¢ $411 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $489.10 · official $489.19 (match) · 1157 history records