Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:54:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a3c…a78f politics 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%2W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% $0
other 26% $0
sports 11% $0
crypto 5% $0
economics 5% $0
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 -0.0% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
all 18 -0.0% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses2 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage115d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $84 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $85 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $85 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $85 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 17 $85 $0 +0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $85 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $85 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $86 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 12 $86 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $86 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $172 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 27 $86 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 18 $86 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 16 $86 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $86 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $86 $0 +0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $86 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 09 $86 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $84 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $84 14h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $84 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $85 9d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $85 18d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 19d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $57 19d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $85 26d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $85 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL No 100¢ $85 37d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY No 100¢ $85 38d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $85 40d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $85 40d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $85 44d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 44d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $56 44d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $86 67d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $86 67d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $86 72d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $86 72d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $86 77d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $86 77d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 79d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 80d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 88d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $4 89d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 89d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 89d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 89d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records