Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:20:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6A 0x6a37…1ca5 crypto 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$166 (+1%) realized +$166 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate100%40W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$423per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$6
14 days+$11
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% +$15
other 27% +$60
tech 15% +$64
politics 14% +$25
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.5% -7.3% 100% 12% -8.9%
≤30d 18 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 6% -8.8%
≤90d 30 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 3% -8.7%
all 40 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 2% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 2% -8.7%
10% -17.3% 0% -17.4%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$688) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$209
Realized+$166
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses40 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage129d
Avg bet$423
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $101 $101 −$0 (-0%)
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $160 end of June? No 96¢ 93¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $123 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 45-49 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $17 +$3 +18%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 14? Jun 14 $167 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 8 above $7.50? Jun 12 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 12? Jun 12 $113 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $151 +$2 +1%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $6 $0 +2%
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $105 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.70 June 1-7? Jun 08 $135 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 June 1-7? Jun 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $129 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $160 +$3 +2%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in May? Jun 01 $268 +$2 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the w May 22 $156 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $252 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $137 +$3 +2%
Will XRP reach $2.10 May 11-17? May 18 $200 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 May 11-17? May 18 $96 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.65 on May 10? May 11 $155 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on May 10? May 11 $140 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$1.00 on the final day of trading of th May 09 $295 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on May 2? May 02 $291 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 02 $564 +$17 +3%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 01 $1,288 +$20 +2%
Will Solana dip to $10 April 6-12? Apr 13 $1,291 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 06 $1,286 +$4 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 03 $1,239 +$5 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 22 $1,256 +$26 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 March 2-8? Mar 09 $1,226 +$2 +0%
Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 07 $1,207 +$5 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $1,218 +$35 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 February 9-15? Feb 17 $1,216 +$2 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at <$375 on the final day of trading of the we Feb 14 $615 +$19 +3%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of February 9 above $305? Feb 14 $567 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 9? Feb 10 $500 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 10 $688 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 February 2-8? Feb 09 $158 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 February 2-8? Feb 09 $499 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $101 1h
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $160 end of June? BUY No 96¢ $5 1h
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $160 end of June? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 46h
Will Khamenei post 45-49 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 47h
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $123 47h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $100 4d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $167 4d
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $17 5d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $113 5d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 8 above $7.50? BUY No 100¢ $120 7d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $35 9d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $117 9d
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 9d
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 9d
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $105 10d
Will XRP reach $1.70 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $135 12d
Will XRP reach $2.00 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $12 12d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $160 14d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 6, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $129 14d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? BUY No 100¢ $30 24d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in May? BUY No 99¢ $268 24d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $252 Week of May 18 2026? BUY No 98¢ $137 27d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $156 29d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $96 36d
Will XRP reach $2.10 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $200 36d
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on May 10? BUY No 100¢ $140 37d
Will XRP reach $1.65 on May 10? BUY No 100¢ $155 37d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$1.00 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 100¢ $295 45d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on May 2? BUY No 100¢ $291 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.27 · official $209.27 (match) · 168 history records