Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:41:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a32…0086 sports 247 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (164 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$78,303 (+19%) realized +$83,552 · open −$5,249
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -73% what you keep after slip
Net edge-73%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%104W / 468L
Whale WR35%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,692per market
Trades / day163.5pace
Fees−$5,010est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$50,264now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$69,773
other 16% −$3,518
crypto 2% +$1,988
world 1% +$46
politics 0% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (164 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-66.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 507 -79.3% -81.3% 11% 11% -70.8%
≤30d 572 -63.3% -66.8% 18% 18% -50.2%
≤90d 572 -63.3% -66.8% 18% 18% -50.2%
all 572 -63.3% -66.8% 18% 18% -50.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover163.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -66.8% 18% -50.2%
10% -70.0% 18% -55.0%
15% ← realistic here -72.9% 17% -59.3%
20% -75.5% 15% -63.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 35% (≥$1,433) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -27% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,378 vs −$870 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$50,264
Realized+$83,552
Unrealized−$5,249
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses104 / 468
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$5,010
Open positions33
Markets (closed)572 / 247
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$1,692
Trades / day163.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 572 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $4,550 $4,680 +$130 (+3%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 40¢ $4,561 $4,346 −$215 (-5%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 37¢ $4,142 $3,977 −$165 (-4%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 47¢ 48¢ $3,290 $3,325 +$35 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 55¢ $2,640 $3,270 +$630 (+24%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 66¢ $3,688 $3,144 −$544 (-15%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 26¢ $3,680 $3,047 −$632 (-17%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 34¢ $2,475 $2,512 +$37 (+2%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 89¢ $2,288 $2,334 +$46 (+2%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 81¢ $2,028 $2,040 +$12 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 56¢ $1,610 $1,977 +$367 (+23%)
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 64¢ $1,860 $1,920 +$60 (+3%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 62¢ $1,812 $1,886 +$75 (+4%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 36¢ 38¢ $1,800 $1,875 +$75 (+4%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 49¢ 52¢ $1,497 $1,573 +$76 (+5%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 61¢ 28¢ $3,050 $1,424 −$1,625 (-53%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 53¢ $1,350 $1,410 +$60 (+4%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 20¢ 20¢ $800 $820 +$20 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $670 $756 +$87 (+13%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 84¢ $731 $753 +$23 (+3%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $443 $732 +$289 (+65%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $606 $613 +$6 (+1%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $500 $475 −$25 (-5%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $225 $338 +$112 (+50%)
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 57¢ $284 $269 −$14 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 466 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pacers vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5 Jun 15 $746 −$746 -100%
Kings vs. Jazz: O/U 231.5 Jun 15 $1,530 −$1,530 -100%
Jazz vs. Suns: O/U 233.5 Jun 15 $676 −$676 -100%
Cubs vs. Brewers Jun 15 $1,010 −$1,010 -100%
Thunder vs. 76ers: O/U 225.5 Jun 15 $470 −$470 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-17.5) Jun 15 $123 −$123 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5) Jun 15 $1,803 −$1,803 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $96 −$96 -100%
Spread: Southern Miss (-13.5) Jun 15 $1,086 −$1,086 -100%
Falcons vs. Saints Jun 15 $2,080 −$2,080 -100%
Spread: Illinois (-13.5) Jun 15 $158 −$158 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 15 $163 −$163 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) Jun 15 $759 −$759 -100%
Spread: Jazz (-4.5) Jun 15 $1,150 −$1,150 -100%
Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 244.5 Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Kigali 2: Mathys Erhard vs Andrej Martin Jun 15 $514 −$514 -100%
O/U 55.5 Jun 15 $142 −$142 -100%
Spread: Miami Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,769 −$1,769 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Charrière vs. Costa (Featherweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $960 −$960 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Jaume Munar vs Casper Ruud Jun 15 $1,370 −$1,370 -100%
Raptors vs. Bucks Jun 15 $1,140 −$1,140 -100%
Spread: Pelicans (-3.5) Jun 15 $92 −$92 -100%
Spread: Saint Louis Billikens (-10.5) Jun 15 $86 −$86 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-11.5) Jun 15 $434 −$434 -100%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-16.5) Jun 15 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Menifield (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,320 −$1,320 -100%
Spread: Vanderbilt (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,967 −$1,967 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5) Jun 15 $122 −$122 -100%
Adelaide International: Mirra Andreeva vs Victoria Mboko Jun 15 $819 −$819 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $698 −$698 -100%
Kings vs. Jazz: O/U 235.5 Jun 15 $600 −$600 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 236.5 Jun 15 $280 −$280 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 232.5 Jun 15 $1,531 −$1,531 -100%
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 138.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Antonia Ruzic vs Anastasia Zakha Jun 15 $1,072 −$1,072 -100%
Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5 Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Jazz vs. Suns: O/U 232.5 Jun 15 $1,250 −$1,250 -100%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Utah Jun 15 $510 −$510 -100%
Queens (NC) Royals vs. Purdue Boilermakers: O/U 162.5 Jun 15 $741 −$741 -100%
Islanders vs. Sabres Jun 15 $613 −$613 -100%
76ers vs. Kings: O/U 228.5 Jun 15 $170 −$170 -100%
UFC 325: Sebastian Szalay vs. Keiichiro Nakamura (Featherweight, Early Jun 15 $612 −$612 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Alexei Popyrin Jun 15 $827 −$827 -100%
Suns vs. Bucks Jun 15 $720 −$720 -100%
Spread: Patriots (-7.5) Jun 15 $2,160 −$2,160 -100%
Raptors vs. Pacers Jun 15 $810 −$810 -100%
Hersonissos 2: Lorenzo Giustino vs Philip Henning Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Wizards: O/U 233.5 Jun 15 $1,172 −$1,172 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 15 $98 −$98 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-16.5) Jun 15 $331 −$331 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $685 51m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $9 51m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $2 51m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $7 51m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $5 51m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $181 51m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $9 51m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $5 51m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $23 51m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $12 51m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $22 51m
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 39¢ $278 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 79¢ $309 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 79¢ $621 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 79¢ $3 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 71¢ $671 2h
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY No 40¢ $40 2h
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY No 40¢ $6 2h
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY No 40¢ $24 2h
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY No 40¢ $9 2h
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY No 40¢ $61 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $980 2h
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY No 40¢ $7 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $8 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 79¢ $3,160 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $24 2h
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY No 40¢ $6 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $9 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $9 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50,264.08 · official $50,156.07 (match) · 3500 history records