Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:06:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a31…cbd6 politics 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$10 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%11W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$6
sports 21% −$4
world 11% $0
other 10% −$3
crypto 6% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -2.5% -11.8% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 6 -4.0% -13.2% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 7 -3.4% -12.6% 29% 0% -9.7%
all 60 -11.1% -19.6% 18% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -27.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -34.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -40.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses11 / 49
Open positions3
Markets (closed)60 / 63
History coverage230d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $98 $98 +$0 (+0%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-13%)
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $7 $0 -5%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $97 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 04 $97 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $99 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $4 −$1 -19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 24 $99 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $102 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $206 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $216 $0 -0%
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? Feb 15 $100 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Feb 09 $99 $0 +0%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 08 $2 −$1 -61%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 06 $101 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 30 $99 $0 +0%
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? Jan 26 $101 $0 +0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 25 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 22 $1 $0 -20%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 21 $211 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 19 $104 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 18 $104 $0 +0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 13 $103 $0 -0%
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 10 $1 $0 -50%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 10 $211 $0 -0%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 09 $104 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 07 $205 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 05 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 01 $104 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 29 $1 $0 -19%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 29 $105 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 28 $104 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 26 $104 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 24 $6 $0 -4%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 22 $1 $0 -33%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 19 $1 $0 -29%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 19 $103 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 17 $112 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 17 $103 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 16 $98 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 13? Dec 14 $104 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 10 $104 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 08 $109 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 05 $60 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 04 $1 $0 -50%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 01 $110 $0 +0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 01 $1 $0 -33%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 30 $1 $0 -50%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 28 $220 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 57m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 57m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $98 35h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 35h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $97 3d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $97 9d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 9d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $97 16d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 16d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 17d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $99 17d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $99 20d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $99 23d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 23d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 25d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $102 34d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $102 101d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 0¢ $1 104d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $101 104d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $101 111d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $103 113d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $103 117d
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? BUY No 100¢ $100 123d
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $99 127d
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL No 1¢ $1 127d
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? BUY No 1¢ $2 129d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.88 · official $104.88 (match) · 309 history records