Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:55:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a31…9165 sports 42 markets active 22h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$274 (+8%) realized +$274 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%20W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$36
14 days+$21
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$470
sports 10% −$198
politics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +45.8% +31.9% 73% 67% +37.9%
≤30d 32 +9.0% -1.4% 53% 50% -5.6%
≤90d 34 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 47% -9.5%
all 41 -0.3% -9.8% 49% 46% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 46% -2.1%
10% -18.4% 46% -11.5%
15% -26.3% 46% -20.0%
20% -33.5% 46% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$72 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$274
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses20 / 21
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage175d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $110 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 Jun 18 $4 +$3 +93%
Paul vs. Zandschulp: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $4 −$3 -99%
Borges vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $3 +$3 +108%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $4 +$4 +100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $4 +$4 +97%
Set Handicap: Simundza (-1.5) vs Baluska (+1.5) Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Donski vs. Duran: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 13 $3 +$3 +101%
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Luisina Giovannini vs Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $5 +$5 +86%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Bolelli/Vavassori Jun 13 $6 +$6 +97%
Radivojevic vs. Ristic: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 13 $6 +$6 +109%
Berrettini vs. Comesana: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 13 $6 +$7 +104%
Cretu vs. Vasami: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 13 $7 +$6 +92%
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Hijikata vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Yastremska vs. Bejlek: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Kokkinakis vs. Barrios: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Montedio Yamagata vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC: O/U 2.5 May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 29 $6 −$6 -98%
Charaeva vs. Korpatsch: Match O/U 21.5 May 27 $2 +$2 +97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 May 27 $2 +$2 +97%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 May 27 $3 +$3 +101%
Luca Van Assche vs. Patrick Kypson: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 27 $6 $0 -0%
Piros vs. Forejtek: Match O/U 21.5 May 27 $4 +$4 +100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Tam May 27 $5 +$5 +101%
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. Júbilo Iwata: O/U 2.5 May 27 $5 +$6 +104%
Set 1 Winner: Griekspoor vs Arnaldi May 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $6 −$6 -98%
ITF Litija: Ziga Sesko vs Theo Papamalamis May 21 $6 −$6 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Suns vs. Kings: O/U 224.5 Mar 03 $198 −$198 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Dec 26 $1,150 +$1,150 +100%
XRP Up or Down - December 25, 11AM ET Dec 26 $255 +$255 +100%
XRP Up or Down - December 25, 10AM ET Dec 26 $320 +$320 +100%
XRP Up or Down - December 25, 12PM ET Dec 25 $737 −$737 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 25, 9AM ET Dec 25 $268 −$268 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 25, 6AM ET Dec 25 $250 −$250 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 BUY Over 51¢ $4 21h
Paul vs. Zandschulp: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2 43h
Paul vs. Zandschulp: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 43h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 52¢ $4 2d
Borges vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 48¢ $3 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 50¢ $4 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 50¢ $1 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 50¢ $3 5d
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 49¢ $0 6d
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 49¢ $0 6d
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 6d
Hijikata vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 7d
Hijikata vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 7d
Hijikata vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 49¢ $0 7d
Set Handicap: Simundza (-1.5) vs Baluska (+1.5) BUY Simundza 50¢ $5 8d
Yastremska vs. Bejlek: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 48¢ $3 9d
Kokkinakis vs. Barrios: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 10d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. BUY Yes 49¢ $1 12d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. BUY Yes 49¢ $4 12d
Donski vs. Duran: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 13d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Bolelli/Vavassori BUY Granollers/Zeballos 50¢ $6 14d
Radivojevic vs. Ristic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 47¢ $6 15d
Cretu vs. Vasami: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 16d
Cretu vs. Vasami: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 52¢ $4 16d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 53¢ $6 17d
Montedio Yamagata vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 18d
Berrettini vs. Comesana: Match O/U 38.5 BUY Over 49¢ $4 19d
Berrettini vs. Comesana: Match O/U 38.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 19d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Detroit Tigers 49¢ $6 20d
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals BUY San Diego Padres 53¢ $5 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.94 · official $109.94 (match) · 116 history records