Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:43:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a2f…f09f sports 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 182d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-3%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate22%23W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$13
other 6% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.7% -12.9% 0% 0% -13.7%
≤30d 19 -13.8% -22.0% 5% 0% -16.1%
≤90d 48 -8.3% -17.0% 15% 6% -16.1%
all 104 -7.2% -16.0% 22% 15% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 15% -13.1%
10% -24.1% 15% -21.4%
15% -31.4% 12% -29.0%
20% -38.1% 12% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses23 / 81
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)104 / 104
History coverage182d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 104 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $11 −$1 -5%
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $5 $0 -7%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 09 $2 $0 -4%
Tyler: Henry Searle vs Karl Poling Jun 05 $1 $0 -1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1 $0 -4%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 03 $6 $0 -5%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 03 $5 $0 -9%
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Diana Shnaider: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $3 $0 -5%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 02 $1 $0 -5%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 26 $1 $0 -4%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 21 $5 $0 -8%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5 May 18 $1 $0 +10%
Darderi vs. Burruchaga: Match O/U 22.5 May 18 $1 $0 -10%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina May 14 $5 $0 -4%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros May 14 $5 $0 -0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians May 13 $1 $0 +0%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 11 $6 $0 -5%
76ers vs. Knicks May 04 $5 $0 -3%
Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels May 04 $1 $0 -4%
Spread: Celtics (-8.5) May 02 $1 $0 -5%
San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 01 $1 $0 -4%
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx Apr 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Apr 28 $5 $0 -7%
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud Apr 28 $1 +$1 +130%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 28 $1 $0 -2%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $1 $0 -3%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 Apr 22 $2 $0 -18%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 22 $3 $0 -9%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Katie Boulter vs Jaqueline Cristian Apr 16 $2 $0 -2%
BMW Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Apr 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Oeiras 3: Maja Chwalinska vs Kaitlin Quevedo Apr 14 $2 $0 -4%
Barcelona Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Karen Khachanov Apr 14 $1 +$1 +129%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Apr 13 $1 $0 -4%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Sloane Stephens vs Veronika Podrez Apr 13 $3 $0 -5%
Stanford Cardinal vs. West Virginia Mountaineers: O/U 136.5 Apr 02 $1 $0 -4%
Copa Colsanitas: Robin Montgomery vs Anna Blinkova Mar 31 $1 $0 -2%
Credit One Charleston Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Donna Vekic Mar 30 $1 −$1 -99%
Clippers vs. Pacers Mar 28 $1 $0 +2%
New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giants Mar 28 $1 +$1 +82%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 27 $1 $0 +9%
Texas Longhorns vs. BYU Cougars Mar 20 $2 $0 -3%
Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Magic vs. Hawks Mar 17 $10 $0 -1%
Suns vs. Celtics Mar 17 $20 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $2 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 65¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 64¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $1 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 46¢ $11 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $5 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $6 3d
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger SELL Ashlyn Krueger 78¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 69¢ $1 4d
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger BUY Ashlyn Krueger 79¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 4d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 50¢ $5 6d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 SELL Over 55¢ $1 6d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 6d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 6d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 SELL Over 54¢ $1 6d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 6d
Tyler: Henry Searle vs Karl Poling SELL Karl Poling 48¢ $1 10d
Tyler: Henry Searle vs Karl Poling BUY Karl Poling 47¢ $1 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 66¢ $1 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 67¢ $1 11d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) SELL Spurs 51¢ $5 12d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $6 12d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev SELL Jakub Mensik 21¢ $4 12d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Jakub Mensik 22¢ $5 12d
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Diana Shnaider: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Under 2.5 68¢ $2 13d
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Diana Shnaider: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 70¢ $3 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 457 history records