Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:22:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a2f…a53b other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate53%19W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$6
other 27% $0
sports 6% −$1
finance 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% +$1
politics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 +2.1% -7.6% 38% 8% -10.4%
≤90d 13 +2.1% -7.6% 38% 8% -10.4%
all 36 -0.9% -10.3% 53% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 3% -10.1%
10% -18.9% 3% -18.7%
15% -26.7% 3% -26.6%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses19 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage470d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $37 −$1 -2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $68 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 20 $75 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $33 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $33 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 07 $34 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $70 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $42 −$5 -12%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 31 $37 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $38 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 22 $2 $0 -12%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $2 $0 -8%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 14 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? Apr 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? Apr 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 01 $14 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Mar 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -63%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 22 $16 $0 +2%
Ethereum above $1,900 on March 21? Mar 21 $15 $0 +2%
Will Blue Tribe be the Crypto the Game Season 3 winner? Mar 21 $11 $0 +1%
USA wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 14 $12 $0 +1%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $1 $0 +8%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days? Mar 11 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $36 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $37 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 34h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 34h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $32 44h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $34 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $13 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $20 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 76¢ $33 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $15 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $18 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $23 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $9 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $33 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $33 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $19 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $14 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $14 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $19 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.00 · official $1.00 (match) · 112 history records