Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:09:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6A 0x6a2d…f446 crypto 409 markets active 0h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$140 (-1%) realized −$351 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate52%209W / 193L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days+$91
14 days+$91
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$409
world 3% −$13
other 1% −$1
sports 1% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +13.9% +3.0% 79% 58% +18.7%
≤30d 19 +13.9% +3.0% 79% 58% +18.7%
≤90d 115 -1.6% -11.0% 54% 42% -8.7%
all 402 -3.9% -13.1% 52% 41% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 41% -10.9%
10% -21.4% 31% -19.4%
15% -29.0% 19% -27.2%
20% -35.9% 10% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0.6763913437445855% → late -7.135122069261119% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$19 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized−$351
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses209 / 193
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)402 / 409
History coverage101d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 402 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 85¢ 78¢ $68 $62 −$5 (-8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 49¢ 40¢ $22 $18 −$4 (-17%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 53¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 61¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $78 +$66 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$7 +32%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$8 -83%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$7 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 21 $43 −$22 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 21 $21 +$13 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 21 $19 +$8 +42%
XRP Up or Down - April 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 21 $8 −$8 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $14 −$6 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 21 $6 +$2 +42%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 16 $30 −$17 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 16 $48 −$14 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 16 $22 +$12 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 16 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 16 $30 −$8 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 16 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 16 $43 −$10 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 16 $16 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 16 $80 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 16 $38 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 16 $46 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 16 $10 +$8 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 16 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 16 $25 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 16 $67 −$11 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 16 $8 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 06 $25 −$14 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 06 $51 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 06 $37 −$7 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 06 $37 +$15 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 06 $8 +$6 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 0m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $144 6m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $10 28m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $39 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 53¢ $42 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $2 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 12¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $11 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $20 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $15 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 99¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.68 · official $149.68 (match) · 1663 history records