Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:35:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6A 0x6a2d…d491 sports 1325 markets active 1h ago coverage 208d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 208d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,745 (-8%) realized −$6,792 · open +$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%738W / 611L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$836now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 208d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$4,072
sports 14% −$1,854
other 8% −$1,429
world 0% −$136
politics 0% +$2
tech 0% +$3
weather 0% −$5
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -66.2% -69.4% 17% 15% -84.3%
≤30d 226 -14.7% -22.9% 59% 47% -67.4%
≤90d 507 -16.6% -24.5% 56% 44% -54.7%
all 1349 -10.6% -19.1% 55% 48% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 48% -20.0%
10% -26.8% 38% -27.7%
15% -33.9% 30% -34.7%
20% -40.4% 21% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$54 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$836
Realized−$6,792
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses738 / 611
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions14
Markets (closed)1349 / 1325
History coverage208d ⚠
Avg bet$66
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 1349 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $265 $275 +$10 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $183 $225 +$43 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $204 $208 +$5 (+2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $64 $54 −$11 (-17%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 68¢ 66¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 54¢ 51¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 74¢ 98¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+34%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 72¢ 95¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+32%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 87¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? No 90¢ 97¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 51¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 53¢ 49¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 62¢ 49¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 485 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Menifield (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Garcia vs. Onama Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-23? Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Rockets vs. Cavaliers Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will India win? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-11-25? Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Chiefs vs. Cowboys Jun 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 1PM ET Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 9AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Preston North End FC win on 2025-11-21? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 November 24-30? Jun 24 $200 −$230 -115%
Will Scotland win on 2025-11-18? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025 Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Colts vs. Chiefs Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2025-11-18? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Betera Esports vs JiJieHao (BO3) Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Eagles vs. Cowboys Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Rock vs. Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 27? Jun 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Torino FC win on 2025-11-24? Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 20? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-25? Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers vs. Western Michigan Broncos Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Jaguars vs. Cardinals Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Baylor Bears vs. Creighton Bluejays Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jun 24 $20 −$49 -244%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 November 24-30? Jun 24 $300 −$300 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-24? Jun 24 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Alcorn State Braves vs. Oklahoma Sooners Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Steelers vs. Bears Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-25? Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 November 24-30? Jun 24 $300 −$300 -100%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Houston Cougars Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Hawks vs. Wizards Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs K27 (BO3) Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $66 +$92 +139%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $1 $0 +24%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $65 −$64 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$6 +57%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $54 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $54 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $158 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $65 34h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $66 34h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 56¢ $51 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 2d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $25 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 3d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 5d
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 58¢ $20 5d
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 62¢ $20 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $43 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $71 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $47 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $27 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $835.95 · official $835.95 (match) · 3500 history records