Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:06:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a29…2b6e crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$48 (-16%) realized −$46 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$53
sports 16% −$6
crypto 7% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -14.9% -23.0% 38% 25% -34.2%
≤30d 8 -14.9% -23.0% 38% 25% -34.2%
≤90d 8 -14.9% -23.0% 38% 25% -34.2%
all 8 -14.9% -23.0% 38% 25% -34.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 25% -34.2%
10% -30.4% 25% -40.5%
15% -37.1% 25% -46.2%
20% -43.3% 25% -51.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$13 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$46
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 64¢ $29 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Yes 42¢ 38¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +95%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $46 −$6 -12%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $48 −$2 -5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $97 −$48 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $8 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 67¢ $9 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 67¢ $39 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 55¢ $41 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $46 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 20¢ $46 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $48 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 25¢ $48 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $97 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.72 · official $34.72 (match) · 20 history records