Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:06:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6A 0x6a28…a10c other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$14 (+19%) realized +$12 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate68%13W / 6L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$17
tech 28% −$5
other 27% +$1
politics 6% $0
finance 3% $0
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +26.8% +14.8% 68% 63% +13.6%
≤30d 19 +26.8% +14.8% 68% 63% +13.6%
≤90d 19 +26.8% +14.8% 68% 63% +13.6%
all 19 +26.8% +14.8% 68% 63% +13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.8% 63% +13.6%
10% +3.8% 53% +2.8%
15% -6.3% 47% -7.2%
20% -15.4% 37% -16.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late +82% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.35 per $1 lost it wins $2.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses13 / 6
Open positions15
Markets (closed)19 / 34
History coverage4d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 62¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+62%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 86¢ 89¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Yes 22¢ 26¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 42¢ 94¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+123%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? Yes 19¢ 21¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 38¢ 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +52%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +130%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $4 +$3 +77%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $1 $0 +49%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $3 +$3 +88%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +349%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +71%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +36%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -74%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -58%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -73%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 54m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 59m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 2h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 86¢ $1 3h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 3h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $2 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $2 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $1 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $1 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.31 · official $30.31 (match) · 75 history records