Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:18:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6A 0x6a23…fd22 weather 387 markets active 2h ago coverage 705d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7,353 (+2%) realized +$7,404 · open −$51
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%173W / 210L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$769per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$821est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$3,622now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,747
7 days+$5,867
14 days+$9,656
30 days+$8,864
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$6,731
sports 31% +$2,933
other 30% +$1,914
politics 2% −$201
crypto 1% −$485
weather 1% −$293
finance 0% −$1,047
tech 0% $0
culture 0% −$25
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -22.3% -29.7% 39% 39% +11.2%
≤30d 57 -23.5% -30.8% 40% 37% +4.2%
≤90d 317 -4.8% -13.9% 44% 37% -3.9%
all 383 -7.0% -15.8% 45% 36% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 36% -7.1%
10% -23.9% 33% -16.0%
15% -31.2% 29% -24.1%
20% -38.0% 26% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$527) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$380 vs −$270 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

705d coverage
Net worth$3,622
Realized+$7,404
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses173 / 210
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$821
Open positions2
Markets (closed)383 / 387
History coverage705d
Avg bet$769
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 383 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 34¢ 36¢ $2,305 $2,439 +$134 (+6%)
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 78¢ 68¢ $1,368 $1,184 −$184 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $1,367 −$35 -3%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $577 −$577 -100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $606 −$606 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $511 −$511 -100%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $511 −$511 -100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $1,248 −$1,248 -100%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $1,605 −$127 -8%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $680 +$320 +47%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $643 −$208 -32%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 27 $527 −$527 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1,000 +$647 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1,060 +$530 +50%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $567 +$333 +59%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1,501 +$808 +54%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $525 +$143 +27%
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $520 −$176 -34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,916 +$1,125 +59%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,002 −$1,002 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 26 $507 −$507 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $683 −$683 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $509 +$551 +108%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $501 −$10 -2%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $8,536 +$8,140 +95%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $4,191 +$4,276 +102%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,809 −$2,809 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $810 +$15 +2%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $2,003 +$2,170 +108%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,000 +$1,041 +104%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $1,040 −$1,040 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,050 −$1,050 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1,150 +$1,350 +117%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $550 −$550 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $654 −$654 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,923 +$1,683 +88%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2,223 +$1,421 +64%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,189 −$729 -61%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $500 −$310 -62%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,239 +$981 +79%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $78 −$78 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $575 −$575 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,313 +$825 +63%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $475 −$475 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $520 −$520 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $530 +$469 +88%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $537 +$537 +100%
Will IK Oddevold win on 2026-06-09? Jun 12 $483 −$483 -100%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $334 +$158 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 64¢ $726 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 64¢ $76 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 70¢ $1 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 70¢ $1 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 70¢ $20 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 70¢ $32 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 70¢ $2 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 70¢ $18 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 70¢ $105 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 70¢ $96 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 70¢ $70 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 70¢ $49 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 70¢ $58 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 70¢ $69 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL No 50¢ $1,478 2h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 53¢ $1,075 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 68¢ $687 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 68¢ $585 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 68¢ $93 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 68¢ $2 4h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $577 11h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $511 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 47¢ $511 11h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1,248 11h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $606 12h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 68¢ $680 12h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 53¢ $530 13h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 27¢ $436 24h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 52¢ $527 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,622.46 · official $3,622.24 (match) · 2743 history records