Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:13:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a23…8e28 world 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate33%8W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$1
other 19% $0
finance 18% +$1
sports 15% −$7
weather 4% $0
politics 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 +3.1% -6.7% 14% 7% -9.1%
≤90d 14 +3.1% -6.7% 14% 7% -9.1%
all 24 +2.7% -7.1% 33% 8% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 8% -10.5%
10% -16.0% 8% -19.0%
15% -24.1% 8% -26.9%
20% -31.6% 4% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses8 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage487d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $44 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $11 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $8 $0 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $12 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $45 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $83 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $11 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $3 +$2 +46%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 14 $2 $0 +8%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Mar 25 $3 $0 +4%
Le-Moyne vs. Central Connecticut Mar 04 $17 −$15 -85%
Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on March 5? Mar 04 $18 $0 -1%
Memphis vs. UTSA Mar 04 $19 −$1 -4%
Syracuse vs. SMU Mar 04 $20 −$1 -7%
Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Mercyhurst Mar 04 $10 +$10 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $44 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $44 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $11 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $10 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $22 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $32 17h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $8 37h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 84¢ $8 40h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $11 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $15 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $4 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $5 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $5 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $30 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $12 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $12 2d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $38 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $38 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $44 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 74¢ $45 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $45 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $44 26d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $34 26d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $6 26d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $39 26d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 26d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records