Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:24:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a22…115f crypto 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 384d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%17W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$11
politics 25% −$2
culture 15% −$1
sports 10% −$1
crypto 3% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 8 -4.7% -13.8% 50% 12% -11.8%
all 42 -3.3% -12.5% 40% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 2% -9.7%
10% -20.8% 2% -18.3%
15% -28.5% 2% -26.2%
20% -35.5% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

384d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses17 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage384d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? No 75¢ 74¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 25 $32 $0 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli May 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? May 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 25 $18 +$11 +62%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23? May 22 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Sebastian Korda win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $54 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 March 23-29? Apr 03 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8? Mar 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of th Mar 24 $45 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 16? Mar 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? Mar 03 $71 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on December 16? Jan 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on December 2? Dec 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025? Dec 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 02 $700 −$1 -0%
Will George Tuță finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-electi Dec 02 $680 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? Dec 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 25 $680 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 25 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $240 November 10-16? Nov 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Abracadabra by Lady Gaga be the most streamed song globally on Sp Nov 25 $700 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Nov 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 12 $66 $0 -0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30? Oct 20 $56 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $106K on August 29? Oct 20 $4 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? Sep 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August? Sep 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 July 28–August 3? Sep 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jul 22 $12 $0 +1%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will HNP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jun 20 $318 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of UDMR? Jun 20 $300 $0 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 20 $340 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 17 $355 $0 -0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Jun 17 $345 $0 -0%
Will Denis Shapovalov win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 10 $345 $0 -0%
Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Jun 10 $350 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series? Jun 06 $365 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 06 $365 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 75¢ $25 1h
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 55¢ $16 34d
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? BUY No 61¢ $18 35d
Will Sebastian Korda win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $30 63d
Will Sebastian Korda win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $23 63d
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? BUY No 100¢ $18 63d
Will Sebastian Korda win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $54 63d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of th SELL No 100¢ $45 93d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 March 23-29? BUY No 99¢ $15 93d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of th SELL Yes $0 93d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 16? BUY No 100¢ $11 101d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $53 101d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 101d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $53 101d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? BUY No 100¢ $71 149d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025? SELL No 100¢ $50 191d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on December 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 191d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $50 191d
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $699 205d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on December 2? BUY No 100¢ $3 205d
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $240 205d
Will George Tuță finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-electi SELL No 100¢ $230 205d
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $460 205d
Will George Tuță finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-electi SELL No 100¢ $449 205d
Will George Tuță finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-electi BUY No 100¢ $180 205d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on December 2? BUY No 100¢ $6 205d
Will George Tuță finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-electi BUY No 100¢ $500 205d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? BUY No 100¢ $5 212d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.59 · official $24.59 (match) · 106 history records