Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:19:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a21…e859 sports 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$427 (-9%) realized −$409 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%27W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$557now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$601
7 days−$306
14 days−$201
30 days−$642
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$124
other 18% −$525
crypto 1% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +27.4% +15.3% 41% 41% -17.6%
≤30d 68 +16.3% +5.2% 38% 38% -23.1%
≤90d 69 +20.2% +8.8% 39% 39% -18.7%
all 69 +20.2% +8.8% 39% 39% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.8% 39% -18.7%
10% -1.6% 38% -26.5%
15% -11.1% 29% -33.6%
20% -19.8% 23% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -62% → late +100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$48 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$557
Realized−$409
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses27 / 42
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions15
Markets (closed)69 / 84
History coverage30d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Over 80¢ 80¢ $160 $159 −$1 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 76¢ $75 $76 +$0 (+1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 72¢ $71 $72 +$0 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 68¢ $69 $68 −$0 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 34¢ $29 $22 −$7 (-24%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 42¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-3%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Over 34¢ 34¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Over 28¢ 28¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Over 22¢ 22¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Over 17¢ 16¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Over 23¢ 13¢ $12 $6 −$5 (-43%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Over 7¢ 7¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Over 10¢ 4¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $53 +$47 +90%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $15 +$35 +238%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $153 +$47 +31%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $69 −$56 -82%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $13 +$37 +291%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $145 +$55 +38%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $47 +$53 +114%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $6 +$44 +712%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $2 +$48 +1926%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $159 +$41 +26%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $56 −$55 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $54 +$16 +31%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $149 +$51 +34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 +$50 +101%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $9 +$31 +365%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 +$30 +152%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $167 +$33 +20%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $53 +$47 +90%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $9 +$21 +226%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $155 +$45 +29%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $3 −$2 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $7 −$6 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$77 +152%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$38 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $100 +$33 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $47 −$46 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $166 −$162 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $34 −$33 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $57 +$143 +250%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $109 −$108 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $40 −$39 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $16 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $62 −$62 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $22 −$22 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $11 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $22 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $70 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $4 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $9 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $21 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $51 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $161 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $14 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $25 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $76 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $5 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $12 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $30 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $72 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2¢ $1 16h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 13¢ $13 16h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $0 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $0 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $0 25h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $15 26h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $53 26h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $153 26h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $21 26h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $69 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $2 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $6 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $13 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $47 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $145 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $556.58 · official $558.32 (match) · 166 history records