Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:48:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6A 0x6a1a…d46b sports 356 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$901 (-1%) realized −$898 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate63%221W / 131L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$283per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$137est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$198
7 days−$421
14 days−$503
30 days−$608
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$834
other 5% −$120
crypto 2% −$50
weather 0% −$19
world 0% +$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -21.5% -29.0% 47% 20% -15.9%
≤30d 75 -16.9% -24.8% 63% 27% -11.8%
≤90d 164 -16.8% -24.7% 63% 30% -9.2%
all 352 -12.7% -21.1% 63% 32% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 32% -10.5%
10% -28.6% 25% -19.0%
15% -35.5% 22% -26.8%
20% -41.8% 20% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$39 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$898
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses221 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$137
Open positions4
Markets (closed)352 / 356
History coverage155d
Avg bet$283
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 352 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic 82¢ 73¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,779 +$44 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $13 +$6 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,002 −$248 -25%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,909 +$108 +6%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $25 −$21 -84%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$11 -91%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $211 +$22 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$9 +171%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $500 +$11 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +37%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 11 $501 −$317 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$4 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Jun 09 $100 +$2 +2%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 09 $300 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 09 $5 +$4 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? Jun 08 $5 +$6 +119%
Will Team WE win the LPL 2026 season? Jun 07 $10 −$8 -81%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $10 +$3 +29%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $10 +$2 +23%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $100 +$5 +5%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 06 $100 +$6 +6%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 06 $100 +$6 +6%
Spread: Spurs (-24.5) Jun 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Spread: Spurs (-25.5) Jun 06 $600 +$13 +2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 06 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 6? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 6? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-22.5) Jun 04 $5 $0 +8%
Spread: Spurs (-24.5) Jun 04 $5 $0 +6%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 04 $5 +$1 +24%
Spread: Spurs (-23.5) Jun 04 $5 $0 +6%
Spread: Spurs (-25.5) Jun 04 $5 $0 +5%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 Jun 04 $5 +$1 +12%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 198.5 Jun 04 $5 +$1 +12%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 04 $5 +$3 +62%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 02 $2,337 +$2 +0%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $500 +$15 +3%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $23 −$12 -52%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $500 +$6 +1%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $100 +$18 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $500 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,001 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $13 12h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 70¢ $754 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,002 36h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $4 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $12 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $25 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,909 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 83¢ $10 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 98¢ $14 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 98¢ $500 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes $5 5d
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) SELL Knicks 36¢ $184 6d
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) BUY Knicks 96¢ $501 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 10? SELL Yes $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.78 · official $36.78 (match) · 680 history records