Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:13:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a19…89dd crypto 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$4 (-3%) realized +$1 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%28W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day71.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +17.9% +6.6% 56% 52% -8.6%
≤30d 50 +17.9% +6.6% 56% 52% -8.6%
≤90d 50 +17.9% +6.6% 56% 52% -8.6%
all 50 +17.9% +6.6% 56% 52% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.6% 52% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -3.6% 48% -17.3%
15% -12.9% 42% -25.3%
20% -21.4% 34% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses28 / 22
Open positions5
Markets (closed)50 / 55
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day71.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 64¢ 70¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+10%)
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Up 30¢ 68¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+128%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Up 47¢ 30¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-37%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Down 82¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Down 90¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$9 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -36%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$10 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$7 -69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +331%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +313%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +266%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +228%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +313%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 6m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $3 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 19m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.71 · official $17.86 · 122 history records