Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:23:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6A 0x6a18…cb3a crypto 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$236 (-4%) realized −$236 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate45%20W / 24L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$276
other 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +32.2% +19.6% 100% 100% +19.6%
≤30d 1 +32.2% +19.6% 100% 100% +19.6%
≤90d 1 +32.2% +19.6% 100% 100% +19.6%
all 44 -21.0% -28.5% 45% 34% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.5% 34% -13.5%
10% -35.4% 30% -21.8%
15% -41.6% 25% -29.4%
20% -47.3% 23% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$45 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$236
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses20 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage111d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $26 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 22 $4 −$3 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 22 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 22 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 22 $20 −$18 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Mar 22 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Mar 22 $10 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 22 $9 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Mar 22 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Mar 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 12 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 12 $464 −$464 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 11 $611 +$364 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Mar 11 $536 +$84 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Mar 11 $980 +$56 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 11 $971 +$23 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Mar 11 $696 +$187 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11AM ET Mar 11 $894 +$34 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 10 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Mar 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Mar 09 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 09 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 09 $6 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 09 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 09 $4 +$7 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 09 $2 +$3 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 09 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 09 $1 +$2 +211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 09 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 09 $1 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 07 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 07 $28 +$29 +103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 75¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $4 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $2 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $20 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $3 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $6 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $23 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $20 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $7 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $9 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $10 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $3 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $464 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $500 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $975 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $611 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $620 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $536 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $542 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $487 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $493 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records