Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:59:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a17…5f06 sports 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$50 (-2%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%25W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$309
7 days−$33
14 days−$98
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$47
other 8% −$74
crypto 5% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +17.2% +6.0% 45% 45% -10.7%
≤30d 48 +17.1% +6.0% 46% 46% -12.8%
≤90d 61 +2.9% -6.9% 41% 41% -14.6%
all 61 +2.9% -6.9% 41% 41% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 41% -14.6%
10% -15.8% 41% -22.8%
15% -23.9% 41% -30.3%
20% -31.4% 39% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$40 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses25 / 36
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage67d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Sonego Jun 17 $144 −$141 -98%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $78 +$66 +84%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $98 −$96 -98%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 17 $85 −$83 -98%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $56 +$127 +228%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 16 $90 −$88 -98%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $61 +$42 +68%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $150 −$27 -18%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $98 −$97 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $123 −$74 -60%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $145 +$79 +54%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $99 +$144 +146%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $77 −$76 -98%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $99 +$77 +78%
Set 1 Winner: Zheng vs Sakkari Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $49 +$111 +226%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $40 −$39 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $49 +$40 +81%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $57 −$57 -99%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $19 +$38 +197%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $51 −$31 -62%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald Jun 14 $88 +$38 +43%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $73 +$114 +156%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $103 −$27 -26%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $54 +$96 +177%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $67 +$46 +68%
Mary Stoiana vs. Celine Naef: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $117 −$106 -90%
Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs Minaur Jun 13 $53 +$64 +121%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 +$42 +414%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $30 −$30 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $32 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 10 $15 +$27 +179%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $34 −$34 -98%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $20 +$14 +71%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $0 $0 +158%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $9 +$10 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$6 +187%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $24 −$8 -33%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $44 −$43 -98%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 07 $2 −$1 -25%
Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-1.5) May 07 $19 −$18 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Sonego BUY Sonego 41¢ $144 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman SELL Ryan Seggerman 83¢ $127 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman SELL Ryan Seggerman 76¢ $17 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Ryan Seggerman 44¢ $78 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 38¢ $98 3h
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 20¢ $85 4h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi SELL Samuel Heredia 64¢ $183 15h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Samuel Heredia 19¢ $56 17h
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $90 19h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 39¢ $102 40h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $103 41h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 41h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 53¢ $61 41h
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 27¢ $61 41h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 53¢ $62 41h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 63¢ $150 44h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 49¢ $50 44h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $49 44h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 21¢ $49 44h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $88 45h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $35 45h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Frances Tiafoe 100¢ $223 45h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 64¢ $145 46h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 40¢ $99 2d
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 49¢ $77 2d
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 99¢ $176 2d
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 55¢ $99 2d
Set 1 Winner: Zheng vs Sakkari BUY Zheng 32¢ $61 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $49 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 44¢ $40 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records