Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:12:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

6A 0x6a16…b7e3 sports 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL +$1,035 (+11%) realized +$1,248 · open −$213

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip

Net edge-11%after slip

Net WR64%break-even

Win rate64%7W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$571per market

Trades / day8.1pace

Fees−$108est.

Kalshi-fit82%portable

Net worth$2,354now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +64%

net ROI/market (all)+0.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+11.2%	+0.6%	64%	64%	+6.3%
≤30d	11	+11.2%	+0.6%	64%	64%	+6.3%
≤90d	11	+11.2%	+0.6%	64%	64%	+6.3%
all	11	+11.2%	+0.6%	64%	64%	+6.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.1 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+0.6%	64%	+6.3%
10% ← realistic here	-9.0%	64%	-3.9%
15%	-17.8%	64%	-13.2%
20%	-25.9%	64%	-21.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 48% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +11% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$381 vs −$424 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$2,354

Realized+$1,248

Unrealized−$213

Win rate (resolved)64%

Wins / losses7 / 4

Est. fees paid−$108

Open positions3

Markets (closed)11 / 17

History coverage3d

Avg bet$571

Trades / day8.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5	Over	73¢	100¢	$1,000	$1,378	+$378 (+38%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5	Over	53¢	52¢	$985	$976	−$9 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-4.5)	Spain	62¢	0¢	$582	$0	−$582 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner	Jun 21	$510	+$625	+122%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$494	−$484	-98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$202	+$126	+62%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$307	+$207	+67%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5	Jun 20	$384	+$228	+59%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5	Jun 20	$486	+$301	+62%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$889	+$527	+59%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$1,012	+$653	+64%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5	Jun 18	$305	−$225	-74%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$502	−$502	-100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$491	−$483	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	53¢	$999	1m
Spread: Spain (-4.5)	BUY Spain	61¢	$405	1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5)	BUY Spain	63¢	$86	1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5)	BUY Spain	66¢	$98	1h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner	SELL Zero Tenacity	100¢	$1,135	3h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner	BUY Zero Tenacity	42¢	$407	5h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner	BUY Zero Tenacity	58¢	$103	5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	73¢	$1,008	7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	31¢	$494	15h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY	53¢	$540	19h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	59¢	$307	21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	61¢	$202	21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$612	21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Will Ecuador win on	BUY	67¢	$910	21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5	BUY Over	62¢	$384	22h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	61¢	$486	23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,417	23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$1,665	23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	62¢	$889	25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	60¢	$1,012	25h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a	BUY	12¢	$79	2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	8¢	$80	2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	29¢	$305	2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	50¢	$491	3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	45¢	$502	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,354.26 · official $2,354.26 (match) · 29 history records