Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:01:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6A 0x6a15…c9ef crypto 549 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$45 (-4%) realized −$42 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%237W / 309L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$79
other 11% +$25
sports 8% +$2
world 4% −$2
culture 1% +$3
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -6.6% -15.5% 46% 46% -17.4%
≤30d 205 -1.2% -10.6% 36% 35% -11.3%
≤90d 321 -7.9% -16.7% 41% 37% -16.8%
all 546 -13.5% -21.7% 43% 38% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 38% -13.7%
10% -29.2% 33% -21.9%
15% -36.1% 28% -29.5%
20% -42.3% 22% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$42
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses237 / 309
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)546 / 549
History coverage100d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 546 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 51¢ 94¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+85%)
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? Yes 39¢ 13¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-67%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 214 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +105%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +64%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 12h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.50 · official $4.50 (match) · 1287 history records