Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:25:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6A 0x6a14…c927 sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$131 (-13%) realized −$125 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -14.0% -22.2% 43% 43% -25.0%
≤30d 7 -14.0% -22.2% 43% 43% -25.0%
≤90d 7 -14.0% -22.2% 43% 43% -25.0%
all 7 -14.0% -22.2% 43% 43% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 43% -25.0%
10% -29.7% 43% -32.1%
15% -36.5% 43% -38.7%
20% -42.7% 29% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$111 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized−$125
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage6d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 66¢ $173 $167 −$6 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $66 −$57 -87%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $199 −$196 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $188 −$185 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $115 +$174 +152%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $152 +$61 +40%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $77 +$75 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $175 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $8 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 5¢ $9 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $66 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $199 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $188 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $289 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $115 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $212 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $152 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $152 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $77 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.64 · official $176.82 · 12 history records