Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:10:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a13…a4fb world 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate31%18W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$3
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$5
sports 23% $0
other 22% $0
politics 9% +$2
economics 1% $0
tech 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.8% -8.8% 20% 0% -7.7%
≤30d 21 +0.8% -8.8% 33% 5% -9.0%
≤90d 57 -5.0% -14.0% 32% 2% -9.2%
all 58 -6.6% -15.5% 31% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 2% -9.7%
10% -23.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -31.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -37.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses18 / 40
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)58 / 60
History coverage486d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? No 96¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $41 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $18 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $65 +$4 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $36 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $33 +$3 +8%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $33 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $31 +$1 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $66 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $133 −$5 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $35 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $33 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $60 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $75 −$2 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $36 +$4 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 29 $29 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $37 $0 -1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $71 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $115 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $76 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $4 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $33 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $2 $0 -4%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $47 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ionuț Dumitru? Apr 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Apr 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $33 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 10 $164 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 09 $36 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $31 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $31 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $37 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $9 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $41 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $29 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $8 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $15 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $0 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $0 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $23 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 36h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $38 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $14 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $23 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $18 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $18 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $41 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $42 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $14 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $19 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $25 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $9 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.16 · official $0.00 · 260 history records