Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:08:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6A
0x6a10…e40b
other · 112 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$14 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$14 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 103
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage108d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 1 History 111 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Warriors vs. Grizzlies Grizzlies 31¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Pistons Lakers 53¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Hornets vs. Celtics Celtics 70¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Wizards vs. Magic Wizards 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Heat vs. Cavaliers Heat 35¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bucks vs. Heat Bucks 30¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $61 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $60 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $95 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $52 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $42 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $52 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 03 $58 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 03 $54 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $45 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $58 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $112 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 30 $61 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $56 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $48 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $104 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $59 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $96 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $107 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $53 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $62 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $99 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $109 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $89 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $59 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $63 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $45 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $106 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $95 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 16 $88 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $59 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 47% −$3
politics 33% −$3
sports 14% +$21
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 28h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 7d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 8d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 21d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $60 24d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $60 31d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 31d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 32d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 37d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 37d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 37d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 38d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 38d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 38d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 39d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 39d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $52 39d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $52 39d
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $53 40d
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $53 40d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $53 40d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $53 41d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 41d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 41d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 41d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 41d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 41d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 42d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $45 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 103 +1.9% -7.8% 5% 3% -9.3%
all 111 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 5% -9.3%
10% -18.3% 5% -18.0%
15% -26.2% 4% -25.9%
20% -33.5% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.00 · official $10.00 (match) · 318 history records