Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:24:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6A 0x6a10…7843 other 584 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,401 (-6%) realized −$3,400 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%314W / 267L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$116est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$275now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$136
7 days+$16
14 days−$308
30 days−$1,215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$1,591
sports 29% −$1,864
weather 2% −$54
politics 2% −$150
world 1% −$14
finance 1% +$24
tech 1% +$6
crypto 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -3.8% -12.9% 57% 50% -8.4%
≤30d 76 -6.9% -15.8% 55% 50% -22.8%
≤90d 348 -32.8% -39.2% 39% 34% -33.1%
all 581 -7.3% -16.2% 54% 48% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 48% -15.0%
10% -24.2% 45% -23.1%
15% -31.5% 38% -30.5%
20% -38.2% 29% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$79 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$275
Realized−$3,400
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses314 / 267
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$116
Open positions3
Markets (closed)581 / 584
History coverage234d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 581 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Portugal 99¢ 99¢ $166 $166 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 68¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Yes 37¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $101 +$74 +73%
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) Jun 23 $102 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $141 +$62 +44%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $39 −$38 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $222 −$184 -83%
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 18 $304 −$2 -1%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$40 +40%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $89 +$101 +114%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $113 +$76 +67%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $11 +$5 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $132 −$131 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $455 −$450 -99%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 15 $347 +$2 +0%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$45 -88%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $115 +$1 +1%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$94 +93%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $112 −$36 -32%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $122 −$120 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 +$21 +42%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $372 +$84 +22%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $247 +$135 +55%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $25 +$27 +105%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $52 +$50 +97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $122 −$120 -99%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $40 +$22 +55%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 13 $15 +$14 +93%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$14 -28%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 +$40 +78%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $51 +$33 +66%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +41%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 10 $99 +$50 +50%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $86 +$80 +93%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $77 +$108 +140%
Will Falkenbergs FF win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 09 $85 +$53 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) BUY Portugal 99¢ $166 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $10 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $101 1h
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) BUY France 100¢ $102 17h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $101 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $141 21h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $5 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $39 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 9¢ $38 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $222 4d
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL No 85¢ $191 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 5d
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL No 89¢ $8 5d
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL No 89¢ $103 5d
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL No 89¢ $1 5d
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY No 87¢ $304 5d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $89 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $189 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $113 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $16 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $11 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $132 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $354 7d
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $349 7d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 7¢ $6 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $60 7d
Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $22 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $274.88 · official $274.88 (match) · 1305 history records