Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:44:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6A 0x6a0f…f933 crypto 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$46 (-29%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%15W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$12
14 days−$17
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$55
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -7.3% -16.1% 25% 25% -44.8%
≤30d 54 -23.9% -31.2% 28% 26% -41.9%
≤90d 54 -23.9% -31.2% 28% 26% -41.9%
all 54 -23.9% -31.2% 28% 26% -41.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.2% 26% -41.9%
10% -37.8% 24% -47.5%
15% -43.8% 17% -52.5%
20% -49.3% 13% -57.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses15 / 39
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage20d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? No 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? No 54¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +49%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$6 +235%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -40%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? Jun 10 $1 $0 +42%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$6 +466%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Solana reach $70 on June 7? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Solana dip to $60 June 1-7? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +46%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -26%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 1-7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -49%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 27 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 27 $3 +$4 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 27 $2 +$2 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 27 $3 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 27 $13 −$10 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 27 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 27 $11 −$1 -5%
Meta (META) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10AM ET May 26 $3 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin above 77,200 on May 26, 11AM ET? May 26 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 26 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 26 $3 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 26 $10 −$7 -69%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 26 $6 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 26 $5 +$1 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY No 54¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 8¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 10¢ $1 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 17h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 18h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 19h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 19h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 41h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 41h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 13? BUY No 57¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 12? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 12? SELL No 68¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 12? SELL No 38¢ $8 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 10¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 10¢ $1 2d
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 12? BUY No 51¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? SELL No 38¢ $0 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? SELL No 35¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? BUY No 53¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? SELL No 0¢ $0 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 11? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? SELL No 0¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.93 · official $2.93 (match) · 214 history records