Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:35:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a0d…4d64 other 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$41 (-1%) realized −$42 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate55%58W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$3
14 days+$16
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$71
sports 14% −$121
other 12% −$74
politics 4% +$22
weather 3% +$38
finance 2% $0
tech 1% −$32
culture 0% +$45
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.6% -11.9% 29% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 27 -0.1% -9.6% 48% 4% -8.8%
≤90d 30 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 3% -8.8%
all 105 +10.6% +0.1% 55% 21% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 21% -10.5%
10% -9.5% 18% -19.1%
15% -18.3% 14% -26.9%
20% -26.3% 12% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses58 / 47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)105 / 106
History coverage529d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $129 $130 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $90 +$3 +4%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -14%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $76 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $116 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $69 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $57 −$5 -9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $103 +$18 +18%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $46 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $146 +$3 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $101 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $79 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $493 +$1 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 30 $101 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $112 −$4 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 28 $197 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $222 +$2 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $96 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $23 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $196 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $196 +$1 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $22 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $3 $0 -6%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $3 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $97 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $130 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $106 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Dec 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 06 $2 $0 +3%
Will Haas be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Dec 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jun-seok win more than 14% of the vote in the South Korea ele Jun 04 $1 $0 +4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? Jun 04 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Alabama win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 31 $7 −$4 -51%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 27 $9 −$4 -50%
Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 25 $64 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on March 23? Mar 25 $61 +$1 +1%
Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $1 $0 -17%
Fact Check: Did the U.S. hit Iranian spy ship? Mar 23 $70 +$1 +1%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Mar 19 $40 +$28 +69%
Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 05 $5 $0 +3%
Will Brentford vs. Everton end in a draw? Mar 05 $10 +$26 +270%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March? Mar 05 $32 −$32 -100%
St. John's vs. Butler Feb 26 $15 −$4 -25%
Tennessee vs. LSU Feb 25 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $129 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $83 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $90 7h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $16 30h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $102 32h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $118 34h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $23 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $23 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $6 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $3 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $4 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $42 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $34 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $76 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $69 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $46 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $116 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $50 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $51 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $52 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 68¢ $57 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $7 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $13 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $18 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $122 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $5 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $3 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $94 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $32 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.57 · official $129.59 (match) · 407 history records