Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:08:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6A 0x6a09…39c2 other 69 markets active 3d ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+0%) realized +$29 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate24%16W / 52L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$279per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$13
politics 13% −$6
other 11% +$34
sports 2% +$12
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 +4.6% -5.4% 18% 6% -8.6%
≤90d 53 -3.0% -12.2% 21% 13% -9.6%
all 68 +0.1% -9.5% 24% 13% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 13% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 13% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 12% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 10% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×4.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$29
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses16 / 52
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage592d
Avg bet$279
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $80 $80 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $22 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $147 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $29 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $23 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 05 $33 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 05 $55 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $15 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $23 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 26 $127 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $23 $0 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $17 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $15 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 19 $27 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 18 $111 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $118 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 11 $9 +$7 +83%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $113 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $111 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 02 $110 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $112 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $106 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $111 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $113 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $111 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $116 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $110 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $111 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $118 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $109 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 16 $113 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $111 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $113 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $109 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 13 $120 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $13 +$6 +48%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $8 +$11 +146%
Sabres vs. Senators Apr 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Senators vs. Panthers Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Apr 02 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 02 $24 $0 +2%
Based FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 02 $49 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY No 100¢ $81 2d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $20 3d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $20 3d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 3d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 4d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 4d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 4d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 10d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 10d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $29 10d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $29 11d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 11d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 11d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 20d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $33 20d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 21d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 21d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $19 21d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $19 22d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 25d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 25d
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $55 25d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 26d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 26d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 55¢ $10 27d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $15 28d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $15 28d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 28d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.77 · official $79.77 (match) · 259 history records