Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:50:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6A 0x6a03…6e17 other 568 markets active 0h ago coverage 732d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$128 (-1%) realized −$103 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%230W / 305L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,052now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days+$281
14 days+$22
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$465
other 16% −$708
world 14% −$138
crypto 13% −$247
politics 10% −$267
weather 4% −$23
economics 1% −$28
culture 1% +$308
finance 0% −$2
tech 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +7.5% -2.8% 71% 61% -3.8%
≤30d 189 -4.9% -14.0% 53% 48% -8.2%
≤90d 211 -6.6% -15.5% 53% 48% -7.9%
all 535 -18.2% -26.0% 43% 38% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 38% -13.3%
10% -33.0% 31% -21.6%
15% -39.5% 24% -29.1%
20% -45.4% 20% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$13 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

732d coverage
Net worth$1,052
Realized−$103
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses230 / 305
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions33
Markets (closed)535 / 568
History coverage732d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 535 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Over 95¢ 100¢ $475 $500 +$25 (+5%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 74¢ 69¢ $97 $91 −$6 (-6%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 91¢ 76¢ $91 $76 −$15 (-16%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 82¢ $55 $58 +$3 (+6%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 72¢ $32 $29 −$3 (-8%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 76¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jordan finish last in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 77¢ 74¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-5%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $22 $21 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 68¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+31%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 59¢ 64¢ $18 $19 +$2 (+9%)
Will Colombia finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 68¢ 36¢ $27 $15 −$13 (-47%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $16 $13 −$3 (-18%)
Will Norway finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 40¢ 65¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+62%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+4%)
Will Senegal finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 29¢ 40¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+38%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will South Korea finish second in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 36¢ $13 $7 −$6 (-45%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 64¢ 33¢ $13 $7 −$6 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 209 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $23 +$7 +32%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 17 $15 +$5 +37%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $86 +$51 +60%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $12 +$8 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 +$5 +21%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $73 −$72 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $17 −$17 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $49 −$49 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $372 −$372 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 16 $336 +$89 +27%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $11 +$9 +79%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $40 +$10 +26%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $42 +$8 +20%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $138 +$12 +8%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $130 +$20 +16%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $95 +$35 +37%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 16 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 +$14 +132%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $40 +$21 +52%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $152 +$32 +21%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $19 +$16 +83%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 16 $30 +$20 +70%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $26 +$24 +89%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $113 +$37 +32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $37 +$25 +67%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $15 +$2 +11%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $49 +$13 +26%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$7 -69%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $21 +$19 +87%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $19 +$11 +57%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 15 $23 +$7 +28%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Dani Olmo: 2+ shots Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $28 +$12 +42%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $17 −$16 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $111 +$38 +35%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $173 +$27 +16%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $69 +$21 +30%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -91%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 +$10 +178%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 +$10 +131%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $31 +$8 +25%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $261 +$29 +11%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $68 +$12 +18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $377 +$23 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $15 +$5 +38%
Joshua Kimmich: 1+ assists Jun 14 $9 +$10 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $11 8m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $2 10m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $2 12m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $2 13m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $4 14m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $12 20m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $28 25m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $16 34m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 40m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $24 41m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $67 41m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $6 41m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $6 41m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $15 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $13 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 83¢ $32 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $476 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $55 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $73 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 57¢ $17 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $30 17h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $26 17h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 86¢ $46 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 86¢ $86 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 86¢ $86 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 86¢ $51 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 86¢ $8 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $40 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 83¢ $8 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 73¢ $15 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,052.32 · official $1,035.36 · 2025 history records