Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:55:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6A
0x6a03…84af
weather · 496 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3,051 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,118 · open +$67
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$153
Realized−$3,118
Unrealized+$67
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses267 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)495 / 496
History coverage78d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day42.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 495 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$242
14 days−$410
30 days+$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Yes 45¢ 80¢ $86 $153 +$67 (+78%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 11? Yes 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 17? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 22? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 16? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on May 24? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 28? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 9? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 22? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on May 24? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on May 24? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on April 30? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 16? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 17? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 1? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on May 24? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 29°C on May 2? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 5? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 1? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on May 27? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 16? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 −$8 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $52 −$22 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $64 +$91 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $52 −$42 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $78 −$50 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $83 +$17 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $123 −$94 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $27 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $29 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $66 −$55 -84%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $136 +$10 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $132 +$12 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $11 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $60 +$78 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $29 −$28 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $8 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $30 +$21 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 −$4 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $0 $0 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $208 −$12 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 08 $1 −$1 -91%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 08 $4 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 08 $0 $0 -52%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $50 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $191 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$3,046
other 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 48m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 48m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 45¢ $29 50m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 42¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 40¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 43¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 67¢ $52 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 29¢ $13 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 31¢ $37 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 40¢ $64 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -26.2% -33.2% 45% 22% -17.6%
≤30d 239 -1.0% -10.4% 56% 25% -8.3%
≤90d 495 +7.5% -2.8% 54% 24% -20.1%
all 495 +7.5% -2.8% 54% 24% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover42.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.8% 24% -20.1%
10% ← realistic here -12.1% 11% -27.7%
15% -20.6% 9% -34.7%
20% -28.4% 8% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.57 · official $132.42 · 3500 history records