Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:07:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6A 0x6a00…16bc crypto 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$126 (+19%) realized +$126 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%26W / 39L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$156
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -6.6% -15.5% 41% 41% +12.7%
≤30d 65 -8.1% -16.8% 40% 40% +12.4%
≤90d 65 -8.1% -16.8% 40% 40% +12.4%
all 65 -8.1% -16.8% 40% 40% +12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 40% +12.4%
10% -24.8% 38% +1.6%
15% -32.0% 34% -8.2%
20% -38.7% 34% -17.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$7 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$126
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses26 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage23d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$4 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$46 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 25 $30 −$28 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $12 +$10 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 25 $40 +$57 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$9 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 25 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$29 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$48 +239%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $7 +$14 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$5 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$9 +344%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 24 $22 +$12 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$6 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$8 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$46 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 24 $40 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$26 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 24 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 24 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$8 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $97 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $20 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 133 history records