Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:51:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6A 0x6a00…fdd5 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$45 (+23%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +416% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +367% what you keep after slip
Net edge+367%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+367.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +416.5% +367.3% 60% 60% +26.2%
≤30d 5 +416.5% +367.3% 60% 60% +26.2%
≤90d 5 +416.5% +367.3% 60% 60% +26.2%
all 5 +416.5% +367.3% 60% 60% +26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +367.3% 60% +26.2%
10% +322.6% 60% +14.1%
15% +281.8% 60% +3.1%
20% +244.4% 60% -7.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +417% · $-wt +53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$4 · ×4.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.83 per $1 lost it wins $6.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage4d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $11 +$15 +141%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 24 $41 −$2 -6%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$27 +134%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $16 +$9 +55%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $62 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 52¢ $0 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 52¢ $37 22h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $38 22h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 39¢ $38 22h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $7 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $16 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.09 · official $60.60 (match) · 14 history records