Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:51:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69fa…53f9 sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$102 (+1%) realized +$123 · open −$21
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate72%21W / 8L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$272per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$46
14 days+$142
30 days+$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$51
politics 31% +$71
world 21% +$45
sports 7% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +6.1% -4.0% 80% 32% -8.8%
≤30d 27 +5.3% -4.7% 78% 30% -7.9%
≤90d 29 +2.8% -7.0% 72% 28% -8.0%
all 29 +2.8% -7.0% 72% 28% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 28% -8.0%
10% -15.9% 24% -16.8%
15% -24.0% 14% -24.9%
20% -31.5% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
18.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$18 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$123
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses21 / 8
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage72d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $22 $0 −$21 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $22 +$2 +8%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $148 −$5 -3%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $12 +$4 +32%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $38 +$2 +6%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $56 +$4 +7%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $32 +$1 +5%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $8 +$4 +49%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $90 +$10 +11%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $20 +$9 +45%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $64 +$22 +33%
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? Jun 22 $59 +$18 +30%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 +$2 +50%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $150 +$13 +8%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $95 −$56 -59%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $40 +$2 +4%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $484 $0 +0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,901 +$25 +1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $44 −$24 -55%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $13 +$5 +40%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13 −$7 -55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $217 −$46 -21%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $357 +$14 +4%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $17 +$1 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1,713 +$48 +3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $2,491 +$98 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $26 −$3 -12%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 12 $10 −$3 -28%
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 12 $9 −$3 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $24 51m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 92¢ $1 53m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 92¢ $11 53m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 92¢ $10 54m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 92¢ $34 54m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 92¢ $29 54m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 88¢ $58 57m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 94¢ $28 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 93¢ $92 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 92¢ $28 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 91¢ $5 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 93¢ $7 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 92¢ $9 1h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $16 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 12.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $40 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $60 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 93¢ $24 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 93¢ $10 2h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $12 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 93¢ $24 3h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 94¢ $38 3h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 93¢ $4 4h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 89¢ $27 4h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 93¢ $6 5h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 93¢ $22 5h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 88¢ $6 5h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $29 5h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 75¢ $12 5h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 67¢ $6 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.18 · official $0.18 (match) · 1112 history records