Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:31:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69f8…3c61 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$62 (-5%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$117
7 days+$200
14 days+$42
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$111
sports 29% +$152
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +50.6% +36.3% 57% 57% +18.5%
≤30d 18 -15.5% -23.5% 39% 33% -5.4%
≤90d 18 -15.5% -23.5% 39% 33% -5.4%
all 18 -15.5% -23.5% 39% 33% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 33% -5.4%
10% -30.9% 28% -14.5%
15% -37.5% 22% -22.7%
20% -43.7% 11% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$36 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage10d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $154 +$177 +114%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $95 −$60 -63%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $212 +$84 +40%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $15 +$64 +416%
France to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 23 $130 +$17 +13%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $82 −$42 -51%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 −$40 -79%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $150 −$148 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 −$3 -19%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $121 +$34 +28%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $121 +$58 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $32 44m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 48m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 15¢ $32 48m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $122 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $72 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 92¢ $296 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $212 2d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 3d
France to score first vs. Iraq? BUY Yes 88¢ $130 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $40 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes $11 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $33 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $117 7d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 8d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 12¢ $13 8d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 8d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 8d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 8d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 8d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 8d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $0 8d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $10 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $155 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records