Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:05:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69f3…2af3 other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-2%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%16W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$7
other 25% +$8
politics 12% +$2
crypto 4% +$1
sports 2% −$20
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.7% -10.2% 25% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 12 -3.8% -13.0% 17% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 12 -3.8% -13.0% 17% 0% -10.9%
all 40 -4.2% -13.3% 40% 2% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 2% -11.4%
10% -21.6% 2% -19.9%
15% -29.2% 2% -27.6%
20% -36.1% 2% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses16 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage452d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 98¢ 97¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $37 −$1 -3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $41 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $70 −$2 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $17 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -37%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $109 −$4 -3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $47 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Mumbai Indians win the 2025 Indian Premier League? Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Holger Rune win the 2025 French Open? Jun 01 $20 $0 +1%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? May 31 $20 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 30 $20 +$1 +7%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will 'Seiko' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 202 May 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 22 $19 $0 +2%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? May 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will Virgil van Dijk win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $14 +$7 +52%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 23 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president Apr 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? Apr 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Apr 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $13 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1300 on Apr 18? Apr 17 $13 $0 +2%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 16 $13 +$1 +9%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Apr 04 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? Apr 02 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $21 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $15 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $37 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $24 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $12 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $37 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $3 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $3 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $37 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $37 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $31 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $1 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $9 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $41 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $23 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $8 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $26 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $6 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $18 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $20 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $7 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $15 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $13 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $3 10d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $17 10d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $17 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.87 · official $34.87 (match) · 114 history records