Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:50:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
69 0x69f2…a80d sports 178 markets active 1h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,343 (+13%) realized +$5,100 · open +$243
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate64%112W / 63L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$493est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$859now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$495
7 days+$2,539
14 days+$6,692
30 days+$2,161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$5,378
other 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +6.8% -3.4% 68% 61% +7.1%
≤30d 154 -1.2% -10.6% 60% 53% -4.0%
≤90d 170 +6.3% -3.8% 64% 57% +2.1%
all 175 +7.0% -3.2% 64% 58% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 58% +2.2%
10% -12.4% 53% -7.6%
15% -20.9% 45% -16.5%
20% -28.7% 38% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$167 vs −$215 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$859
Realized+$5,100
Unrealized+$243
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses112 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$493
Open positions3
Markets (closed)175 / 178
History coverage184d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Overwatch: Spacestation Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - OCS North America Stage 2 Group Stage Spacestation Gaming 72¢ 100¢ $339 $471 +$132 (+39%)
Overwatch: Twisted Minds vs Geekay Esports (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Group Stage Twisted Minds 66¢ 100¢ $216 $326 +$110 (+51%)
Overwatch: Crazy Raccoon vs ZETA DIVISION (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage Crazy Raccoon 58¢ 59¢ $61 $62 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Overwatch: Al Qadsiah vs Telacy (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 27 $4 +$1 +25%
Rainbow Six Siege: Four Angry Men vs Kingzone (BO3) - CN League Stage Jun 27 $207 +$152 +74%
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P Jun 26 $142 +$162 +114%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula Jun 26 $303 +$166 +55%
Overwatch: Weibo Gaming vs HUNENG (BO3) - OCS China Stage 2 Round Robi Jun 26 $9 +$1 +11%
Rainbow Six Siege: POZY vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Gro Jun 26 $62 +$6 +10%
Overwatch: Cheeseburger vs O2 Blast (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group St Jun 26 $13 +$6 +48%
Overwatch: Team Secret vs MENG GONG 3 (BO3) - OCS Pacific Stage 2 Grou Jun 25 $279 +$31 +11%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $404 −$400 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $581 +$504 +87%
Overwatch: VARREL vs 99DIVINE (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 24 $29 +$3 +9%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso Jun 24 $385 +$215 +56%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $556 −$550 -99%
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 24 $355 +$145 +41%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super Dr Jun 24 $403 −$403 -100%
Overwatch: Lazuli vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 24 $147 −$147 -100%
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+1.5) Jun 23 $110 −$110 -100%
Map Handicap: FKS (-1.5) vs MIR (+1.5) Jun 23 $874 −$874 -100%
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage Jun 23 $1,039 +$833 +80%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $231 −$55 -24%
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro Jun 23 $1,527 +$1,156 +76%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $142 −$140 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $507 +$419 +83%
Overwatch: 99DIVINE vs REVATI (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 23 $42 +$25 +59%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $142 +$149 +105%
Overwatch: MURASH GAMING vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Sta Jun 23 $300 +$100 +33%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $142 −$140 -99%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Jun 23 $465 +$155 +33%
Map Handicap: EP (-1.5) vs Barça eSports (+1.5) Jun 22 $849 +$723 +85%
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage Jun 22 $292 +$108 +37%
Map Handicap: UCAM (-1.5) vs Pixel Lumina (+1.5) Jun 22 $769 −$766 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $142 +$92 +65%
Overwatch: 99DIVINE vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 22 $208 +$62 +30%
Overwatch: The Kafe vs Disguised (BO3) - OCS North America Stage 2 Gro Jun 22 $292 +$222 +76%
Overwatch: Spacestation Gaming vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North Ameri Jun 21 $116 +$29 +25%
Overwatch: Geekay Esports vs 1234 (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 21 $34 −$34 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $152 −$150 -98%
Overwatch: Weibo Gaming vs Four Angry Men (BO3) - OCS China Stage 2 Ro Jun 21 $310 +$15 +5%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 21 $551 +$453 +82%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $573 +$515 +90%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $142 −$140 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $163 +$237 +146%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $187 +$105 +56%
Rainbow Six Siege: One Coin vs Four Angry Men (BO3) - CN League Stage Jun 20 $220 −$220 -100%
Game Handicap: 4AM (-1.5) vs One Coin (+1.5) Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $142 +$89 +63%
Overwatch: Poker Face vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stag Jun 19 $17 −$17 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $152 +$130 +86%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $511 +$1,184 +232%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $840 −$830 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Overwatch: Spacestation Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - OCS North Americ BUY Spacestation Gaming 72¢ $163 1h
Overwatch: Spacestation Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - OCS North Americ BUY Spacestation Gaming 72¢ $178 1h
Overwatch: Crazy Raccoon vs ZETA DIVISION (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Gr BUY Crazy Raccoon 58¢ $3 1h
Overwatch: Twisted Minds vs Geekay Esports (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Gr BUY Twisted Minds 65¢ $186 1h
Overwatch: Crazy Raccoon vs ZETA DIVISION (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Gr BUY Crazy Raccoon 58¢ $59 1h
Overwatch: Twisted Minds vs Geekay Esports (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Gr BUY Twisted Minds 75¢ $4 2h
Overwatch: Twisted Minds vs Geekay Esports (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Gr BUY Twisted Minds 74¢ $27 2h
Overwatch: Al Qadsiah vs Telacy (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Group Stage BUY Al Qadsiah 80¢ $4 6h
Rainbow Six Siege: Four Angry Men vs Kingzone (BO3) - CN League Stage BUY Kingzone 57¢ $173 24h
Rainbow Six Siege: Four Angry Men vs Kingzone (BO3) - CN League Stage BUY Kingzone 56¢ $34 29h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY ex-Sashi Academy 46¢ $142 30h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 64¢ $303 30h
Overwatch: Weibo Gaming vs HUNENG (BO3) - OCS China Stage 2 Round Robi BUY Weibo Gaming 90¢ $9 41h
Rainbow Six Siege: POZY vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Gro BUY EDward Gaming 91¢ $16 42h
Rainbow Six Siege: POZY vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Gro BUY EDward Gaming 91¢ $14 43h
Rainbow Six Siege: POZY vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Gro BUY EDward Gaming 91¢ $32 45h
Overwatch: Team Secret vs MENG GONG 3 (BO3) - OCS Pacific Stage 2 Grou BUY Team Secret 90¢ $47 2d
Overwatch: Team Secret vs MENG GONG 3 (BO3) - OCS Pacific Stage 2 Grou BUY Team Secret 90¢ $180 2d
Overwatch: Team Secret vs MENG GONG 3 (BO3) - OCS Pacific Stage 2 Grou BUY Team Secret 90¢ $22 2d
Overwatch: Team Secret vs MENG GONG 3 (BO3) - OCS Pacific Stage 2 Grou BUY Team Secret 90¢ $22 2d
Overwatch: Team Secret vs MENG GONG 3 (BO3) - OCS Pacific Stage 2 Grou BUY Team Secret 90¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner BUY GamerLegion 69¢ $404 3d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner BUY Eternal Fire 65¢ $556 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 47¢ $41 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 54¢ $365 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 54¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 54¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 54¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 54¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 54¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $858.87 · official $858.88 (match) · 694 history records