Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:55:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

69
0x69f0…fb27
weather · 1318 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$2 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$10
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses15 / 3
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 1318
History coverage3d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1121.6
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 3 History 18 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 10? Yes 58¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+72%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Yes 81¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 9? Yes 83¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 9? No 77¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 5? No 16¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+525%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 4? No 78¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 4? No 69¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 8? No 87¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 8? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? No 95¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? No 65¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+53%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? No 82¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 12? No 70¢ 40¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-42%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Yes 51¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+96%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 7? Yes 23¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+335%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 11? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 8? No 81¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 9? Yes 82¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 6? No 50¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on June 8? No 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 5? Yes 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 9? Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 9? Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 5? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +526%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 4? Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 4? Jun 12 $0 $0 +45%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 8? Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 8? Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 12 $0 $0 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 7? Jun 12 $0 $0 +335%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 12 $0 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 9? Jun 12 $0 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 6? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on June 8? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $19 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 82% +$1
other 7% $0
sports 3% $0
politics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes $1 5m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 5m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 12¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $20 6m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $7 7m
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes $0 9m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 90¢ $5 13m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 15m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 72¢ $7 17m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on June 12? BUY Yes $0 17m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $16 21m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $15 24m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? BUY Yes 80¢ $7 25m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $4 25m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 27m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes $0 29m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 29m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 32m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 32m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes $0 33m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $6 34m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 36m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $2 36m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 14? BUY Yes $0 37m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 70¢ $6 38m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes $0 38m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 34¢ $9 38m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)+40.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +55.5% +40.7% 83% 72% +16.2%
≤30d 18 +55.5% +40.7% 83% 72% +16.2%
≤90d 18 +55.5% +40.7% 83% 72% +16.2%
all 18 +55.5% +40.7% 83% 72% +16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1121.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +40.7% 72% +16.2%
10% ← realistic here +27.2% 50% +5.1%
15% +14.9% 33% -5.1%
20% +3.7% 28% -14.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.78 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records