Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:39:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
69 0x69f0…04f2 politics 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$2
economics 32% −$3
politics 12% −$1
sports 11% −$1
world 6% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 20 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 20 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage90d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $66 $0 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 22 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 22 $1,287 −$3 -0%
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be less than $150B at market close on IP Jun 22 $1,211 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $227 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027? Apr 17 $7 $0 -7%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 16 $8 −$1 -7%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Apr 16 $226 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $4 $0 -4%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 16 $222 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 31 $195 $0 -0%
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Mar 31 $83 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 1? Mar 31 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 27 $92 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 27 $105 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 24 $178 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Mar 24 $19 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $66 1h
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 98¢ $1,283 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 98¢ $1,259 2h
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $40 2h
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be less than $150B at market close on IP SELL No 100¢ $860 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 98¢ $28 2h
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be less than $150B at market close on IP SELL No 100¢ $349 3h
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be less than $150B at market close on IP BUY No 100¢ $1,211 4h
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $227 65d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $227 65d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $5 65d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $5 65d
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027? SELL Yes $7 66d
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes $7 66d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes $7 67d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes $8 67d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $226 67d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $226 67d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $3 67d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $4 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $221 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $222 67d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $195 83d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $164 83d
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? SELL No 93¢ $83 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 1? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records