Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:53:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69ed…9c3b other 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$298 (-15%) realized −$285 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%2W / 13L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$952now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$105
other 27% +$584
sports 22% −$132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -12.0% -20.4% 13% 13% +30.7%
≤30d 15 -12.0% -20.4% 13% 13% +30.7%
≤90d 15 -12.0% -20.4% 13% 13% +30.7%
all 15 -12.0% -20.4% 13% 13% +30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.4% 13% +30.7%
10% ← realistic here -28.0% 13% +18.1%
15% -35.0% 13% +6.7%
20% -41.4% 13% -3.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +44% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -92% → late +58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$477 vs −$46 · ×10.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$952
Realized−$285
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses2 / 13
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)15 / 21
History coverage4d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $874 $862 −$12 (-1%)
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals Yes 24¢ 24¢ $72 $72 +$0 (+0%)
Leroy Sané: 2+ goals Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $62 −$62 -100%
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 29 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $72 −$46 -64%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $46 +$54 +119%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 29 $83 −$81 -98%
Casemiro: 1+ goals Jun 29 $99 +$900 +906%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 3 Canada? Jun 28 $56 −$55 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 28 $37 −$37 -100%
Tajon Buchanan: 1+ goals Jun 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 28 $11 −$10 -97%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 28 $42 −$33 -78%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 Portugal? Jun 27 $44 −$44 -100%
Norway vs. France: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 26 $96 −$60 -63%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $23 −$23 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 29m
Leroy Sané: 2+ goals BUY Yes 5¢ $10 33m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Take First Corner AND Germany leading at BUY 47¢ $150 35m
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $5 44m
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $12 45m
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $50 45m
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $6 46m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 8¢ $26 57m
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $100 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 26¢ $39 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $46 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $83 1h
Casemiro: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $999 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 22¢ $33 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 21¢ $55 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 21¢ $17 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $296 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $538 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $39 2h
Casemiro: 1+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $72 3h
Casemiro: 1+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $24 3h
Casemiro: 1+ goals BUY Yes 8¢ $0 3h
Casemiro: 1+ goals BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 24h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $952.38 · official $1,100.27 · 75 history records