Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:34:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69ed…54ca politics 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$14 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%11W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% −$2
other 20% −$13
sports 11% $0
crypto 6% $0
world 4% −$1
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.1% -7.6% 100% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 4 -24.5% -31.7% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 4 -24.5% -31.7% 25% 0% -9.5%
all 51 -4.5% -13.6% 22% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 0% -9.8%
10% -21.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -29.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -36.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses11 / 40
Open positions3
Markets (closed)51 / 54
History coverage233d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $15 $12 −$2 (-15%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 18 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $43 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $82 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 03 $86 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $85 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)? Feb 14 $83 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 01 $82 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 27 $84 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 26 $169 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 24 $82 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 22 $83 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 20 $168 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $85 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Jan 15 $83 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 13 $83 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 11 $84 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 10 $3 $0 +7%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 09 $82 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 05 $85 $0 +0%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Jan 03 $83 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 02 $2 $0 -20%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 01 $2 $0 -17%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 31 $82 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 30 $83 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 28 $81 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 25 $83 $0 -0%
Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend? Dec 23 $82 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 22 $2 $0 -9%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 20 $441 $0 -0%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 19 $35 −$10 -28%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 18 $94 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 16 $95 $0 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 15 $94 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 12 $191 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 10 $65 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 07 $95 $0 -0%
Will Rixi Ramona Moncada Godoy win the 2025 Honduras presidential elec Dec 03 $93 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 01 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 28 $1 $0 -48%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 26 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 23 $93 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 21? Nov 22 $94 $0 +0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 20 $98 $0 -0%
Will David Williams win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Nov 16 $95 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 16 $2 $0 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 14 $96 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 07 $97 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 01 $98 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 30 $96 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 99¢ $57 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $12 42h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $11 4d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 97¢ $55 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $20 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $61 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $82 17d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $82 20d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $85 107d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $85 109d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $85 116d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $85 122d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 100¢ $83 126d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $82 137d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $82 138d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $83 142d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $84 142d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $84 143d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $84 144d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $82 145d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $82 146d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.03 · official $24.07 (match) · 233 history records