Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:28:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69ea…bcc8 other 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%89W / 4L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$10
crypto 17% +$1
world 8% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
weather 0% $0
sports 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 20 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 93 -3.4% -12.6% 96% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 0% -9.0%
10% -20.9% 0% -17.7%
15% -28.6% 0% -25.7%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.38 per $1 lost it wins $3.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses89 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)93 / 94
History coverage473d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $35 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $3 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $31 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 27 $35 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 6? Apr 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 06 $3 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 06 $30 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 30 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 23 $33 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? Mar 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 06 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Z.ai have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)? Mar 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 3, 2026? Feb 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? Feb 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026 Jan 31 $31 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 10 $31 $0 +1%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De Jan 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jan 02 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on December 7? Dec 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on December Dec 21 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Nov Dec 07 $1 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced by November 30? Dec 07 $1 $0 +5%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 07 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $145,000 in November? Dec 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets in December 2025? Dec 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 07 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on November 24? Nov 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 30 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.70 on November 1? Nov 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 Nov 10 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $36 57m
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 3d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 10d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $35 16d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 21d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 22d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $31 30d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 32d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $3 32d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 32d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 48d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 50d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $35 58d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 61d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $34 71d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 78d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 85d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 99¢ $1 85d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $3 85d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $33 97d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 102d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $32 107d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 100¢ $31 121d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 132d
Will Z.ai have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 132d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 132d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $32 136d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026 BUY No 98¢ $31 147d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 157d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.98 · official $35.98 (match) · 187 history records