Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T07:59:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

69
0x69ea…15cd
world · 305 markets active 5h ago
1.0score
+$101,900 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$99,238 · open +$2,362
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Chart Positions 24 History 281 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$63
14 days+$5,609
30 days+$2,080
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 94¢ 96¢ $35,520 $36,474 +$954 (+3%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? No 97¢ 97¢ $9,004 $9,031 +$27 (+0%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $5,504 $5,906 +$401 (+7%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 89¢ 98¢ $4,385 $4,806 +$421 (+10%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $4,460 $4,636 +$176 (+4%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $3,932 $3,954 +$22 (+1%)
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $2,261 $2,264 +$2 (+0%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 91¢ 96¢ $1,941 $2,031 +$89 (+5%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? No 97¢ 99¢ $1,190 $1,210 +$19 (+2%)
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $1,149 $1,161 +$12 (+1%)
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? Yes 96¢ 97¢ $1,004 $1,015 +$11 (+1%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 87¢ 94¢ $905 $976 +$71 (+8%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 73¢ 74¢ $794 $800 +$5 (+1%)
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $608 $613 +$5 (+1%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $523 $564 +$41 (+8%)
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026? Yes 95¢ 97¢ $534 $545 +$11 (+2%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? No 89¢ 98¢ $417 $462 +$44 (+11%)
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $447 $456 +$9 (+2%)
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $363 $366 +$3 (+1%)
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? Yes 71¢ 77¢ $289 $313 +$25 (+8%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? No 95¢ 100¢ $269 $283 +$14 (+5%)
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni by December 31, 2026? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $213 $214 +$1 (+1%)
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in June 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $140 $141 +$1 (+1%)
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026? Yes 95¢ 92¢ $127 $124 −$4 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 12 $9,850 −$10 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1,164 +$73 +6%
Will Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in May? Jun 04 $143 +$1 +1%
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in May? Jun 04 $273 +$7 +3%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? Jun 04 $460 +$3 +1%
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in May? Jun 04 $1,810 +$11 +1%
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in May? Jun 04 $1,913 +$86 +4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $706 +$14 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $79 +$2 +3%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $321 +$4 +1%
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $558 +$11 +2%
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31? Jun 01 $706 +$25 +4%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? Jun 01 $1,285 +$94 +7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $28,902 +$3,385 +12%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $1,273 +$96 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $3,954 +$930 +24%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $27,037 +$868 +3%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by May 31? Jun 01 $400 +$8 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 26 $1,058 −$1,058 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 26 $3,294 −$3,294 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $410 +$63 +15%
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 22? May 24 $761 +$8 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $2,415 −$607 -25%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 23 $1,586 +$252 +16%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 20 $361 +$9 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $4,564 +$361 +8%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? May 18 $132 +$2 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $2,076 +$51 +2%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May? May 14 $712 +$52 +7%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 14 $1,748 +$120 +7%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 14 $2,052 +$46 +2%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 14 $5,766 +$146 +2%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026? May 14 $6,868 +$320 +5%
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Polymarket" this week? May 11 $49 +$1 +3%
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? May 10 $57 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $3,333 +$211 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $7,627 +$417 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? May 08 $2,298 +$71 +3%
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in May? May 08 $713 +$8 +1%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? May 01 $2,953 +$217 +7%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026? May 01 $2,857 +$494 +17%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026? May 01 $4,428 +$313 +7%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? May 01 $5,970 +$92 +2%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 01 $9,445 +$159 +2%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 01 $5,236 +$508 +10%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $31,271 +$3,814 +12%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 28 $76,441 +$8,600 +11%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 16 $46,173 +$2,489 +5%
Will Hegseth say "This President" during press conference? Apr 09 $20 $0 +1%
Will Hegseth say "CIA" during press conference? Apr 09 $41 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 85% +$61,432
other 9% +$5,046
politics 6% +$5,676
crypto 0% +$3
economics 0% +$29,442
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY No 97¢ $919 5h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY No 97¢ $764 5h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY No 97¢ $3,691 5h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY No 97¢ $137 6h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY No 97¢ $3,494 7h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $9,840 7h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $5,035 17h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $100 18h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 84¢ $100 40h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 84¢ $7 40h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 84¢ $5 40h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 84¢ $52 40h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 84¢ $16 40h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 84¢ $6 40h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 84¢ $5 40h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 84¢ $5 40h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 84¢ $5 40h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 84¢ $32 40h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 84¢ $31 40h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 84¢ $119 40h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 84¢ $10 40h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 84¢ $12 40h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 84¢ $72 40h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $373 40h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 91¢ $423 40h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 91¢ $4 40h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $9,850 40h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $5 40h
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, BUY No 97¢ $661 40h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 96¢ $207 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.1% -6.7% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 33 -2.2% -11.5% 88% 12% -7.9%
≤90d 99 +28.5% +16.3% 94% 13% -2.3%
all 281 +32.0% +19.4% 92% 12% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +19.4% 12% -4.2%
10% +8.0% 7% -13.3%
15% ← realistic here -2.5% 5% -21.7%
20% -12.0% 4% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78,343.15 · official $78,343.15 (match) · 3500 history records