trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 10 | +11.0% | +0.4% | 70% | 60% | +15.3% |
| ≤30d | 19 | -7.3% | -16.2% | 53% | 47% | +10.3% |
| ≤90d | 25 | -14.8% | -23.0% | 48% | 40% | +6.8% |
| all | 25 | -14.8% | -23.0% | 48% | 40% | +6.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -23.0% | 40% | +6.8% |
| 10% | -30.3% | 36% | -3.4% |
| 15% | -37.1% | 32% | -12.7% |
| 20% | -43.2% | 24% | -21.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $1,000 | $973 | −$27 (-3%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 13¢ | 11¢ | $1,091 | $929 | −$162 (-15%) |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | Yes | 8¢ | 1¢ | $89 | $11 | −$79 (-88%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 | Jun 24 | $1,012 | +$628 | +62% |
| Spread: England (-2.5) | Jun 23 | $2,023 | +$1,203 | +60% |
| Spread: Portugal (-2.5) | Jun 23 | $1,011 | +$534 | +53% |
| Spread: Portugal (-1.5) | Jun 23 | $100 | +$1 | +1% |
| Spread: Portugal (-4.5) | Jun 23 | $549 | −$544 | -99% |
| Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 | Jun 23 | $507 | +$419 | +83% |
| Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 | Jun 23 | $504 | +$200 | +40% |
| Spread: France (-2.5) | Jun 23 | $3,037 | +$2,048 | +67% |
| Spread: Argentina (-1.5) | Jun 22 | $1,519 | −$1,500 | -99% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Jun 19 | $213 | −$119 | -56% |
| Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 | Jun 14 | $86 | −$85 | -99% |
| Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 | Jun 14 | $91 | −$4 | -5% |
| Spread: Germany (-4.5) | Jun 14 | $136 | −$6 | -5% |
| Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 | Jun 14 | $51 | +$27 | +52% |
| Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 | Jun 14 | $49 | +$9 | +18% |
| Spread: Germany (-3.5) | Jun 14 | $151 | −$150 | -99% |
| Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 | Jun 14 | $29 | −$10 | -35% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June | Jun 12 | $438 | +$107 | +24% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | Jun 12 | $203 | −$200 | -98% |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May? | May 15 | $34 | −$34 | -98% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | May 15 | $10 | −$1 | -12% |
| Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their | May 15 | $24 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee | May 09 | $105 | −$71 | -68% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | Apr 24 | $325 | −$314 | -97% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Apr 24 | $227 | +$97 | +43% |