Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:41:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

69 0x69e6…fa40 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$15 (+4%) realized +$3 · open +$12

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%4W / 2L

Drawdown37%max

Avg bet$50per market

Trades / day3.4pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$331now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-4.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+5.1%	-4.9%	67%	67%	+15.3%
≤30d	6	+5.1%	-4.9%	67%	67%	+15.3%
≤90d	6	+5.1%	-4.9%	67%	67%	+15.3%
all	6	+5.1%	-4.9%	67%	67%	+15.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.9%	67%	+15.3%
10%	-14.0%	67%	+4.3%
15%	-22.3%	67%	-5.8%
20%	-29.9%	33%	-15.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 32% · top 2 56% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +28% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.65 per $1 lost it wins $2.65

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$331

Realized+$3

Unrealized+$12

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses4 / 2

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 8

History coverage4d

Avg bet$50

Trades / day3.4

Drawdown37%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	22¢	23¢	$318	$331	+$12 (+4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$2	−$2	-98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 23	$10	+$5	+48%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 23	$7	−$6	-92%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$7	+$5	+70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$15	+$7	+48%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 21	$9	+$5	+57%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	22¢	$326	1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada: O	BUY	2¢	$23	21h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	25¢	$2	43h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	67¢	$10	47h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	SELL Norway	6¢	$1	2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	73¢	$7	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	70¢	$12	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	40¢	$7	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$22	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$15	3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$0	3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$15	3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	63¢	$9	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $330.57 · official $330.57 (match) · 14 history records