Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:15:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69e3…761f sports 460 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,359 (-3%) realized −$8,423 · open −$936
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate89%407W / 51L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$629per market
Trades / day30.1pace
Fees−$1,072est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8,568
7 days−$8,239
14 days−$37,827
30 days−$30,127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$1,225
world 2% −$6,190
other 2% −$3,322
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 180 -0.1% -9.6% 96% 6% -14.1%
≤30d 396 -8.1% -16.9% 87% 7% -20.8%
≤90d 458 -1.2% -10.6% 89% 19% -12.6%
all 458 -1.2% -10.6% 89% 19% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 19% -12.6%
10% -19.2% 14% -21.0%
15% ← realistic here -27.0% 9% -28.6%
20% -34.1% 6% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$867 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized−$8,423
Unrealized−$936
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses407 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$1,072
Open positions2
Markets (closed)458 / 460
History coverage45d
Avg bet$629
Trades / day30.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 458 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug - Game 1 Winner the bug 100¢ 50¢ $333 $167 −$166 (-50%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 81¢ 0¢ $770 $0 −$770 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $224 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $516 +$258 +50%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $64 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $213 $0 +0%
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6,274 −$6,190 -99%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,500 +$2 +0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2,640 −$2,640 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1,500 +$2 +0%
Game Handicap: Lindorfitos (-1.5) vs x5 Gaming (+1.5) Jun 15 $734 +$1 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $655 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: EAC Rising vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $39 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $52 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $205 $0 +0%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,500 +$2 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,833 −$2,821 -100%
Map Handicap: BBP (-1.5) vs RUSTEC (+1.5) Jun 15 $158 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $792 +$1 +0%
Game Handicap: TESC (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $243 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $1,500 +$2 +0%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs Betclic Apogee Esports (+1.5) Jun 15 $42 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs Coalesce - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $262 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $276 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $18 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Cloud Rising (+1.5) Jun 15 $930 +$1 +0%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $282 $0 +0%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $428 −$424 -99%
Game Handicap: Roar (-1.5) vs Team Refuser (+1.5) Jun 15 $292 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,270 +$1 +0%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $80 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Jun 15 $1,500 +$2 +0%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $503 +$416 +83%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $888 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,500 +$2 +0%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $949 +$1 +0%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,500 +$2 +0%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,500 +$2 +0%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,500 +$2 +0%
Counter-Strike: Festina Lente vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,124 +$1 +0%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $1,019 +$1 +0%
Map Handicap: NTR (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $88 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,500 +$2 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,500 +$2 +0%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $797 +$1 +0%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1,500 +$2 +0%
Game Handicap: GAL (-2.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+2.5) Jun 14 $279 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $775 1h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 100¢ $1 14h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 100¢ $28 14h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 100¢ $20 14h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 100¢ $20 15h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 100¢ $26 15h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 100¢ $15 15h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 100¢ $2 15h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 100¢ $10 15h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 100¢ $101 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $516 22h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner BUY Carstensz 100¢ $64 28h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Sashi Esport 100¢ $213 33h
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug - Game 1 Winner SELL the bug 99¢ $402 38h
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug - Game 2 Winner SELL the bug 99¢ $5 38h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $6,274 45h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 100¢ $1,500 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1,115 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $113 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1,348 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $63 47h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $6 2d
Game Handicap: Lindorfitos (-1.5) vs x5 Gaming (+1.5) BUY x5 Gaming 100¢ $1 2d
Game Handicap: Lindorfitos (-1.5) vs x5 Gaming (+1.5) BUY x5 Gaming 100¢ $733 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 100¢ $1,500 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $6 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $7 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $499 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.50 · official $167.54 (match) · 1761 history records