Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:42:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
69 0x69e2…5969 crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 178d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$74 (-2%) realized +$250 · open −$324
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$343per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$380
7 days−$1,225
14 days−$1,760
30 days−$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$1,549
crypto 23% −$486
politics 17% +$1,616
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 +1.1% -8.5% 25% 25% -15.1%
≤90d 4 +1.1% -8.5% 25% 25% -15.1%
all 8 +15.8% +4.8% 62% 62% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.8% 62% -13.0%
10% -5.3% 50% -21.3%
15% -14.4% 25% -28.9%
20% -22.8% 12% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$333 vs −$586 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$250
Unrealized−$324
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage178d
Avg bet$343
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 22¢ 2¢ $362 $38 −$324 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $385 −$380 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $867 −$845 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 08 $559 −$535 -96%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $538 +$1,616 +300%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Dec 23 $40 +$12 +30%
Solana Up or Down - December 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Dec 23 $40 +$18 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Dec 23 $40 +$8 +21%
XRP Up or Down - December 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Dec 23 $40 +$10 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $137 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $385 11h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 11h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $232 11h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 23¢ $191 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $209 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $862 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $24 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 10d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 98¢ $2,154 15d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 22¢ $1 19d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 22¢ $200 19d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 25¢ $2 21d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 25¢ $335 21d
Solana Up or Down - December 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $58 177d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $52 177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $48 177d
XRP Up or Down - December 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $50 177d
XRP Up or Down - December 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $40 177d
Solana Up or Down - December 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $40 177d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $40 177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $40 177d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.01 · official $38.01 (match) · 35 history records